Joined: Jun 19, 2014
Posts: 121
Location: Livermore, CA
Posted:
Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:23 am
Over time, I've become accustomed to poor training at the higher levels of ADM. However, my hope has always been that my natural 21 WL warriors, once they started training stats, would bring the speedy improvements I crave.
So it was with much anticipation that I awaited the results of my first Freshman bust, a warrior who had gone 1-3 and 4-3 in Freshman's pre-bust.
Going in with a 24 WL, I was training DF for a 2nd time (half of 99% chance of success?), WT for a 3rd time (ditto), and WL for a 4th train.
My warrior missed every single train in his 5-3 run.
Statistically, how improbable is that?
DF: (24*5)/2 = 60% chance of success. 40% chance of failure. Missed 2 times
WT: (24*5)/2 =60%. Missed 3 times.
WL: (24*5)/4 = 30%. Missed 3 times.
If my college statistics (a distant memory, to be sure) don't fail me, that's approximately a
.4 * .4 * .4 * .4 * .4 *.7 *.7 * .7 = Less than 1% chance of missing 8 consecutive trains.
First of all, is my math correct? Secondly, did anyone else have such miserable training results as I?
gentleben ArchMaster Poster
Joined: Aug 21, 2008
Posts: 4015
Location: Round Rock, Tx
Posted:
Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:43 pm
The tournament is at 50% of what you would have in the arena. So the highest percent chance is 50, so I assume your 60% is actually at 30%
_________________ Gentleben
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DonaldTrump Advanced Expert Poster
Joined: Jun 19, 2014
Posts: 121
Location: Livermore, CA
Posted:
Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:44 pm
gentleben wrote:
The tournament is at 50% of what you would have in the arena. So the highest percent chance is 50, so I assume your 60% is actually at 30%
Right, tourney training is at half %. The 60% was a guess. Half of normal arena: 24 WL * 5% = 120%, which of course doesn't make sense mathematically (my guess is the max is 99%, but I've never seen a 20+ WL fighter miss a first train myself).
DT
The Consortium ArchMaster Poster
Joined: Nov 23, 2002
Posts: 10142
Location: on the golf course, in the garden, reading, traveling, and now Consulting
Posted:
Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:54 am
DonaldTrump wrote:
gentleben wrote:
The tournament is at 50% of what you would have in the arena. So the highest percent chance is 50, so I assume your 60% is actually at 30%
Right, tourney training is at half %. The 60% was a guess. Half of normal arena: 24 WL * 5% = 120%, which of course doesn't make sense mathematically (my guess is the max is 99%, but I've never seen a 20+ WL fighter miss a first train myself).
DT
Over time, we have missed a first train once with 20 WL, and once with 21 WL!
_________________ The Consortium: Crapmaster 2013, Crapgiver 2014; 1213 ADM graduates (40+ manager IDs) including 176K+ fights and 118K+ wins plus 4 teams with 1500+ wins (Animal Farm DM11 @2085; Bulldogs DM11 @ 1976; Lenpros DM30 @ 1792; Fandils DM46 @1727
The Consortium ArchMaster Poster
Joined: Nov 23, 2002
Posts: 10142
Location: on the golf course, in the garden, reading, traveling, and now Consulting
Posted:
Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:55 am
Above was in arenas, not tournaments.
_________________ The Consortium: Crapmaster 2013, Crapgiver 2014; 1213 ADM graduates (40+ manager IDs) including 176K+ fights and 118K+ wins plus 4 teams with 1500+ wins (Animal Farm DM11 @2085; Bulldogs DM11 @ 1976; Lenpros DM30 @ 1792; Fandils DM46 @1727
DonaldTrump Advanced Expert Poster
Joined: Jun 19, 2014
Posts: 121
Location: Livermore, CA
Posted:
Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:16 am
Quick update!
One of my reprinted fights showed I actually made a (third) WT train, so my bust wasn't a total loss. Still 1/8 with a 24 WL was not quite what I was hoping for.
But, I press on. Now setting up for an ADM bust, years down the line.
DT
FLOYD1 Advanced Master Poster
Joined: Feb 22, 2004
Posts: 395
Location: the BIG apple
Posted:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 6:49 am
I busted an Eligible at a FTF recently ... Before the freeze he was 25-20-3-21-21-6-21 ...Yes 3 untouched 21's !!
He got a WIT train in the run up to the tourney ... So as the tourney started he was 25-20-3-22-21-6-21. I proceeded to get another WILL train over the next 16 turns. What I thought was a slam dunk TC turned into a RU ...
So , Donald , I feel your pain.
gentleben ArchMaster Poster
Joined: Aug 21, 2008
Posts: 4015
Location: Round Rock, Tx
Posted:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:01 am
FLOYD1 wrote:
I busted an Eligible at a FTF recently ... Before the freeze he was 25-20-3-21-21-6-21 ...Yes 3 untouched 21's !!
He got a WIT train in the run up to the tourney ... So as the tourney started he was 25-20-3-22-21-6-21. I proceeded to get another WILL train over the next 16 turns. What I thought was a slam dunk TC turned into a RU ...
So , Donald , I feel your pain.
You did a 1 turn bust?
_________________ Gentleben
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FLOYD1 Advanced Master Poster
Joined: Feb 22, 2004
Posts: 395
Location: the BIG apple
Posted:
Fri Apr 28, 2017 8:33 am
No GB ... was 2 turns before the tourney ... only one of which he hit a train.
DonaldTrump Advanced Expert Poster
Joined: Jun 19, 2014
Posts: 121
Location: Livermore, CA
Posted:
Sat May 13, 2017 10:02 am
FLOYD1 wrote:
I busted an Eligible at a FTF recently ... Before the freeze he was 25-20-3-21-21-6-21 ...Yes 3 untouched 21's !!
He got a WIT train in the run up to the tourney ... So as the tourney started he was 25-20-3-22-21-6-21. I proceeded to get another WILL train over the next 16 turns. What I thought was a slam dunk TC turned into a RU ...
So , Donald , I feel your pain.
Wow, Floyd. That does suck worse than my experience.
With such poor training, hopefully you stayed classed Eligible!
DT
gentleben ArchMaster Poster
Joined: Aug 21, 2008
Posts: 4015
Location: Round Rock, Tx
Posted:
Sat May 13, 2017 11:17 am
FLOYD1 wrote:
No GB ... was 2 turns before the tourney ... only one of which he hit a train.
I thought the first 3 trains were at 5*WL which would have been 105% for you.....how do you miss a train with a 21 WL and an untouched attribute?
_________________ Gentleben
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