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Duel2 :: View topic - Manager's Cinci FtF Predictions!
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Managerr
ArchMaster Poster
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Joined: Jul 12, 2002
Posts: 4247
Location: Omaha

PostPosted: Fri Jul 16, 2021 8:43 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Primus:
--------
Well, maybe there's hope someone other than TMM can win it. TMM not being there and TUM/DS/CI all being there could make things interesting for a bit.

TC: TMM R-Up: TMM Sleeper: TUM

Contenders:
------------
TC: TUM R-Up: TMM Sleeper: Khisanth

Eligibles:
----------
TC: TUM R-Up: Doc Steele Sleeper: Mannequin

ADM
----
TC: Howling Wolf R-Up: TUM Sleeper: Assur

Freshmen:
----------
TC: Mannequin R-Up: Howling Wolf Sleeper: TMM

Challengers:
-------------
TC: TMM R-Up: DMobster Sleeper: Howling Wolf

Champs:
--------
TC: OAB R-Up: TUM Sleeper: Mannequin

Adepts:
---------
TC: JE R-Up: Master Darque Sleeper: Riff-Raff

Inits:
-------
TC: TDO R-Up: MrM Sleeper: Kharadmon
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LHI
Site Admin
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Joined: Jun 20, 2002
Posts: 1343

PostPosted: Sat Jul 17, 2021 12:34 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Good luck to everyone at the tourney!

_________________
More TCs please!
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Longshot
Grandmaster Poster
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Joined: Sep 30, 2012
Posts: 909
Location: Vancouver, BC

PostPosted: Mon Jul 19, 2021 9:42 am Reply with quoteBack to top

LHI wrote:
Good luck to everyone at the tourney!


Did you send anyone?

_________________
The Chosen DM-8
Lords of Discipline DM-28 (inactive)
The Family DM-99
50 Blades of Grey DM-99
Miserable Men DM-99
Brony Cringe DM-99
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One Armed Bandit
ArchMaster Poster
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Joined: Apr 15, 2004
Posts: 2906

PostPosted: Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:16 am Reply with quoteBack to top

This is the link to the round-by-round newsletters:

http://www.reality.com/ff65con.htm

And this is the TC // RU list compiled by Assur:

Primus: Bob Eternal AB TMM // Mr. Gherkin AB TMM
Contenders: Lucy AB Dr. F // Orange Cranberry WS TMM
Eligibles: The Uptight Man AB TUM // Buried Treasure AB OAB
ADM: Frank Burke AB Anarchist // Master Reaper LU Floyd
Freshmen: Air Raid TP HW // Ill Subliminal TP HW
Challengers: Horrible Hairmonster LU TUM // Sergeant 17 SL Anarchist
Champions: Pillar of Salt AB Floyd // Lyam LU HW
Adepts: Clever Stab LU HW // Skull ST JE
Initiates: Too Short ST HW // Mason Fruitbat WS The Pope
Apprentices: Ode Rebuff TP TUM // Marsala LU Kharadmon
Rookies: Janky ST Kharadmon // Ewip AB Chief Illiniwek
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One Armed Bandit
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Joined: Apr 15, 2004
Posts: 2906

PostPosted: Sat Jul 31, 2021 9:36 am Reply with quoteBack to top

I followed the FtF online from an apartment in New York City, so I don't have any interesting anecdotes about the actual event. Although it was very cool of Khorvinus to live stream the finals fights on Discord. It was nice to see Sandy and Morgan and the various competitors on camera after so long.

I had planned on sending 30 entrants, but I added 3 more at the last minute from my DM 47 contest team, simply for the learns and FE. They put up some 1-3 performances, which didn't help my record any. But at least they survived.

Total entrants: 33
Breakdown by class: 6 Primus, 4 Contenders, 1 Eligible, 1 ADM, 2 Freshmen, 6 Challengers, 2 Champions, 1 Adept, 1 Initiate, 4 Apprentices, and 5 Rookies
Breakdown by fighting style: 10 AB, 5 LU, 4 ST, 3 PL, 3 TP, 2 BA, 2 PS, 2 SL, 1 PR, and 1 WS

Primus

I had 6 entries of 6 different styles (AB, BA, PL, PS, SL, ST).

My AB, SNAKE OIL SALESMAN, had a terrible tourney. He lost to three straight maxed ABs before salvaging the last two wins.

I managed to pick up three stylemasters with my SL, ANDORIAN SMOOTHIE (at 3-3), my BA, HORSE D'OEUVRE (at 2-3), and my ST, RALTUMAN OMELET (at 0-5).

ANDORIAN SMOOTHIE, in particular, had a great tourney, going 2-2 against ABs and picking up a third win against his SL stylemaster competitor, LEGACY. I am excited to see if he can keep up these good performances in the future.

HORSE D'OEUVRE also did very well. He hit two different maxed ABs several times in each match, although failed to achieve victories against them. But he did manage a win over a TP, KHRISTOPHER, and a LU (!), SAMSARA, to finish 2-3, ahead of the other bashers.

RALTUMAN OMELET won by virtue of showing up and having more FE than the other Striker. Its nothing to brag about, but I'll take it.

I'll be cutting my PL from my roster for next tourney, as there are just too many competitive PLs to have a reasonable shot at a stylemaster. And GAOLER is the type that does well against the LUs and poorly against the ABs, so the recent skew towards more ABs and less LUs means a tougher road for him.

Contenders and Eligibles

All four of my Contenders, three of which are former TVs in the class, went 3-3. Not much to say about that, I guess, besides better luck next time.

I had one entry in Eligibles, a burnt zombie AB named BURIED TREASURE. She started out as a 5-7-16-21-7-7-21 AB who was +2 Att/+4 Def and +4 endurance, and who died in basic. The zombie potion brought her back as a 7-7-16-17-9-7-21 +5/+4 immortal max damaged AB. She went on to graduate and start setting up for tournies at the ADM level. She trained over the line in Freshmen and earned a 13-3 RU, then did the same in ADM and earned an 11-3 TV. She spent years training her physicals in 102 until she went into this tourney looking like this:

She is a aimed blow with ST=22(15) CN=21(14) SZ=16 WT=20(3) WL=21(12) SP=7 DF=25(4).

She was at the line, and she didn't have much to bust, but I decided to go for it because she was a single strategy/single train warrior and I could safely let her go and watch from home. The plan was to learn gateway skills in the three turns in 102 prior to the tourney, then train the 20(3) WT for the entire tourney. On average, she should pick up 4-5 skills per arena turn, take roughly 4 rounds in the tourney to get that train to 21 WT, and then take another 8 rounds to get that train to 22 WT. That would provide her with a healthy bust-out, similar to 6 trains to breakpoints after the freeze.

Unfortunately, the fates had a different plan for her. Things started off great, as she picked up 7 skills in her first arena fight, then 3 skills in her second arena fight. I targeted a 400 arena fight LU with 2 kills for her third fight in the arena. The FE should provide good learns, and the warrior clearly wasn't a killer. Or was he? I discovered on Saturday morning that COYOTE had killed BURIED TREASURE in the arena, denying her a third turn of gateway skills. That had less than 1% chance of happening, I figure.

BURIED TREASURE didn't seem to mind, though, once the tourney began. Maybe it even fired her up. She started off Eligibles going 12-0, beating LUs and ABs primarily, but also a SL, a TP, a PS, and a PR. The bad news was that in these 12 rounds where I was expecting her to get a train to 21 WT and a train to 22 WT, she got 0 trains.

In round 13, she faced off against THE UPTIGHT MAN, also at 12-0. BURIED TREASURE couldn't lay a hand on him, and she lost to go to 12-1. Then again in round 14, she lost and went to 12-2. But she got her first WT train to 21, finally.

After that WT train, she was suddenly able to hit THE UPTIGHT MAN, and managed to win in round 15. But in round 16, she lost again to come in 2nd place with a 13-3 record.

I wonder how things would have gone if she had not died in that last pre-tourney turn and learned some gateway skills, or if she had trained normally and picked up WT to 21 and WT to 22 before facing THE UPTIGHT MAN for the first time. I can't help but think that things could have gone differently based on going 1-1 in Rounds 15 and 16. But we'll never know.

THE UPTIGHT MAN is a great warrior and there is no shame in losing to him. Congrats to TUM on his victory.

ADM and Freshmen

I busted out one warrior in ADM and two warriors in Freshmen, to 6-3, 6-3, and 3-3 records. These things happen.

Challengers

It has been a while since I've been relevant in Challengers, but it looks like my Challengers crew is starting to shape up nicely.

Ignoring my Turf War entry, I had 5 legit entries, but only 1 of which was over 50 FE. CADAVER DOG went 11-3, eliminated by the eventual TC, HORRIBLE HAIRMONSTER (congrats on this one, too, TUM). FIFTH-RATE went 9-3-1, which is especially promising since she is under the supposed 50 FE breakpoint. And another one came close at 6-3.

It was a very successful class, and made a huge difference with my TV percentage for the tourney.

Champions through Rookies

Nothing to see here. The best I could manage was a 5-3-1 from a Rookie, who will be competing in Apprentices in October.

Overall

My warriors ending up going 106-103-2-1, for slightly better than 50% win/loss, and won a runner-up, two TVs, and three stylemasters. I decided to call that 3.3 awards, for an exact 10% award percentage. I was pretty happy about my performance, given that I wasn't there switching up strategies each round.

The absence of Papa Bear's warriors was very noticeable in Primus. He always made his mark on the class, whether it was his home grown PS DEADLY BEAR putting up routinely excellent performances, or his style-switch ST WALL PAPER HANGER going deeper than any other ST could, or his horde of LUs and ABs that were always daunting match-ups. I asked around on Chatzy if anyone had heard why Papa Bear wasn't participating, but nobody had heard why.

We found out yesterday that Joe Freni, the man behind the manager Papa Bear, passed away on July 28. His funeral is being held this weekend at Oyster Bay Funeral Home in Long Island: https://oysterbayfuneralhome.com/1/Home.html

Primus won't be the same without you, Joe.

David
One Armed Bandit
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