Record for Futility

Unchartered Poster Joined: Apr 18, 2023 Posts: 3

What is everyone's record for the most failed stat trains in a row in basic.
I have a warrior that has a 17 will trying for his second point of strength to go from 8->9. He has now failed this train 11 straight times!

This begs a couple of questions:
1. What do we think/know the chance to increase a stat in basic? I used to think it was 5*WL stat but I'm not so sure anymore.
2. What is the penalty for 2nd, 3rd and 4th trains? I used to think it was halved for each successive train. Also not so sure anymore.
3. Do we think that certain warriors are better at training stats than others? I've certainly had some that seem to never miss a train and others like this loser that can't train anything.

If the chance is 5*WL and halved for a second point the odds of this happening are: 5*17= 85% to train / 2 = 42.5% chance to succeed on second point.
The odds of failing 11 in row are (100-42.5)^11 or 0.2%. I need to go buy a lottery ticket Very Happy

Posted: Sun Jun 11, 2023 12:49 am

I once had a warrior in DM 100 miss on 46 straight stat raise attempts on ST or CN, ST was for his 7th raise and CN was his 6th.

I believe and have no way to prove it that their are hidden random luck factors throughout the game. Including each warrior having hidden luck factor(s).

Posted: Sun Jun 11, 2023 2:43 pm

There is nothing more frustrating then missing stat trains. Especially easy first trains, but then taking 3-5 turns to get the 2nd with a 17-21 WL makes me want to kill something. Evil or Very Mad

Yours is an anomaly, but who knows. I think also that warriors have their own built in luck, good or bad.

Posted: Mon Jun 12, 2023 7:10 pm

I have a lunger that used to win three TCs back in the early 90s who hasn't learned a skill or had his first stat increase in advance in six years.

I have a parry riposte that is 23-3-0. He has not been able to win a fight, raise a stat, or learn a skill in four years.

Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2023 3:16 am

dm_blue wrote:

What is everyone's record for the most failed stat trains in a row in basic.
I have a warrior that has a 17 will trying for his second point of strength to go from 8->9. He has now failed this train 11 straight times!

This begs a couple of questions:
1. What do we think/know the chance to increase a stat in basic? I used to think it was 5*WL stat but I'm not so sure anymore.
2. What is the penalty for 2nd, 3rd and 4th trains? I used to think it was halved for each successive train. Also not so sure anymore.
3. Do we think that certain warriors are better at training stats than others? I've certainly had some that seem to never miss a train and others like this loser that can't train anything.

If the chance is 5*WL and halved for a second point the odds of this happening are: 5*17= 85% to train / 2 = 42.5% chance to succeed on second point.
The odds of failing 11 in row are (100-42.5)^11 or 0.2%. I need to go buy a lottery ticket Very Happy

My record is 31 straight missed 6th trains (ST) with a 20 WL in Home Guard.

Had another warrior who seemed motivated to break my futility record (26 missed CN trains on a 10th train with a 25 WL) but finally came through this turn.

Despite personal anecdotal evidence that suggests the contrary, I really do think the chances of a stat train are WL*5 modified by how many successful trains you've had (in ADM the first 3 are "easy", in Primus the first 5). Essentially, after the easy ones are done, each successive train is half the chance down to about a 10% minimum try (20%'ish in Primus) after that.
Essentially, more than 5 "hard" trains on a stat, even with a 25 WL, are going to take awhile.

As for your futility record, even if there's only a 1 in 500 chance of it happening, it's still gonna happen now and again (and it sucks when it happens to you). I've heard of training droughts that lasted 2+ years. Luckily, I haven't experienced THAT level of frustration!

The good news is, if your training plan is a good one, eventually your patience will be rewarded. But I'd probably still give up on the 9 ST for now. Smile

Riff-Raff

Posted: Sat Jul 08, 2023 12:25 am

I'm in the same camp as Visionist. There is more to stat training than the formula will all use. What are the other items involved?!? No clue. Might be as simple as the luck factor. Might be any number of other things. But I do think there is more to it than just the 5%*WL formula. Very hard to prove, but I've seen too many warriors fall into the statistical anomalies to believe it is 'just' the dice against the formula.

Posted: Sat Jul 08, 2023 1:31 am

Then, there are us Consortiums who believe, despite the oddities in the formula (stated above) for basic.

However, we often state virtually all formulae have a 1/50 (2%) (estimate) knack (good or bad) in them.