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guardian
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2006 3:31 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

just one more point to consider here

a maga manager is going to run what hes going to run , no matter what it takes to get the number of good warriors he wants to run at a face

the small dollar manager is on the other hand severly screwed over by the dark arena as its his only recourse to get more guys and he isnt lilkly to spewnd a wad of cash on tourney teams . so if on his 3 teams there are 7 good guys come tourney time hes only going to run 7 but if he consistintly had 10 -15 decent warriors out there he is sure a lot more likely to run a cpl extra come tourney time 21 dollars to filed 2 full teams at a tourney is a good value , 21 dollars of dark arena frustration = no warriors at the tourney from that manager

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Drake
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2006 5:44 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

guardian wrote:
consortium crew

i can say with absolute certainty that the average size of replacement warriors is significantly higher now than it was in the mid 90's the rollup generator deliberately causes it , the distribution is based around what i consider to be the wrong numbers , (but that is just personal opinion)


which results in to many sz 15-16 warriors because they are in the same distribution pool as 8-14 , so the number of warriors rolled up from dark arena bouts is roughly the same for sizes -8-16 , with sizes above and below that some diminishing number .

whereas before there was just a static pool and so many of each size in the pool .

if the program was even changed to move sz-15 and 16 into the pool for 17-21 it would make a huge difference

to say exactly what the percentages are i admit i cannot i can only tell you that sz 15 and 16 are as likely as sz 8-14 and they shouldn't be .


Interesting. Based on this, I just ran a query on all the RUs in my warrior database (only a few hundred warriors) and came up with the following breakdown of sizes:

03 0.90%
04 2.25%
05 1.35%
06 1.80%
07 7.21%
08 8.11%
09 8.56%
10 8.56%
11 9.01%
12 10.36%
13 11.26%
14 6.31%
15 5.86%
16 10.36%
17 3.15%
18 1.80%
19 1.35%
20 0.90%
21 0.90%

Size 16 does seem to be significantly out of whack.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2006 5:54 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

guardian wrote:
drake the thing that makes rollups fun , interesting or challenging is when you have some weird set up that actually can be fun to run because it has some redeeming quality and the rollups do need those distributions below 5 and above 15 so you can get the 3 coupled with a 21 to make some of the more interesting designs in the game .


Well, I was just posting about my preferences. I make no claims about how well they mesh with the DM community at large. It's actually one of the tricky things about being a game designer. With a game like this, you don't want exceptional stats to be too common or they won't be exceptional any more. Basically, if everyone had played like Gretzky (sp?) he would have been a nobody.

I did some number crunching earlier this afternoon (and then went and left my files on my other PC), but my method produced exceptional stats (<5 or >=15) about 16% of the time. Deke's suggested method produced them nearly 80% of the time. I'd think somewhere around 40-50% exceptional would be better (bout 2 warriors on each team).

Another problem with both our methods was that they produced average stats of around 9, which is fine for most of the stats but not Size. Since you can't add points to Size, size should fall onto a bell curve with the top of the curve falling around 12. Easily fixable; just generate size first as a true 3-21 by rolling either 3d7 or 2d10+1, and then generate the remaining stats using a method in between Deke's and mine.

Of course, all of this is acedemic unless RSI is willing to entertain the idea of programming a new Roll-Up generator.

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guardian
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2006 7:21 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

drake

but you see in the end the exceptional stats are meaning less they are not what makes a warrior great all the hidden things do all the exceptional stays do is make you want to run him to find out how good he is


this warrior

11-10-9-17-17-7-13 not an awesome rollup but a certainly serviceable one


but on the rare occasion he rolls up bonus-ed and with a good weapon and favorites and learning curve he certainly can be awesome and the same is true of most warriors

i can tell you i roll this guy up all the time and i run him in rookies as a lunger why ?

because out of the 30 times Ive done it one time he was flawless had the right weapon the right favorites the right favorite learn was bonus-ed in attack and defense , and endurance and damage and he got lucky on matchups for enough rounds to get good enough to beat the styles he should struggle against in the early going and he won rookies on the other hand 20 times hes gone 0-3 to 5-3 another 10 times hes tv'd , and when this rollup get you deep in a rookies its just a lot of fun , and there are all kinds of rollups that Can do the same thing in lots of classes the fun is in finding that lightning in a bottle every once in awhile

odd that you saw such a disparity in sz 16 mine was larger in 15 than 16 but i group those sizes together because in my eyes based on size breakpoints they should have similar distribution

and again no idea is perfect not mine not yours not anyones , id just like to see some small change that makes it better for everyone . because i honestly think it could a lot to revitalize basic



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PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2006 7:24 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

if someone programmed a rollup generator for themin turbo pascal im sure they might take a look at it

guardian


and yes i think one xeceptional stat 25 percent of the time would be about right 2 less than that 3 even less but all should be possible not dyo quality but it should be possibel to be close to that

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Drake
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2006 7:52 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

guardian wrote:
drake

but you see in the end the exceptional stats are meaning less they are not what makes a warrior great all the hidden things do


Sure, I understand that it's the things you can't control (skill bonsues in the right skills, favorites, good rolls on physicals and so on) that makes for the truly champion warriors. Changing the roll-up pool won't much impact that stuff anyway, so I doubt the frequency of TCs and Primus Gods would change that much with a change in the RU pool. However, I'm not really talking about those guys anyway. I'm just talking about how common exceptional stats should be for the arena warrior.

Quote:
odd that you saw such a disparity in sz 16 mine was larger in 15 than 16 but i group those sizes together because in my eyes based on size breakpoints they should have similar distribution


Well, it was easier to write the query to break down by each Size number rather than by skill & damage breakpoints. As to 15 being fairly normal & 16 being high on my stats, like I said it was only a few hundred warriors and you might see slightly different results with a larger sampling. Still, I think it's enough to show that the distribution of Sizes is out of whack on the high end of the scale. Heck, it's probably even worse when you consider that I don't have any of my straight-to-DA garbage roll-ups in there. There would have been several high-size beasts added in.

Quote:
and again no idea is perfect not mine not yours not anyones , id just like to see some small change that makes it better for everyone . because i honestly think it could a lot to revitalize basic


Oh, sure, if I were a perfect software designer I'd be making a heck of a lot more money than I do. Nothing ends up perfect, but one can always strive for (and solicit for) better ideas.

Quote:
if someone programmed a rollup generator for themin turbo pascal im sure they might take a look at it


Alas, I haven't touched Pascal in nearly 20 years and I've never much looked at Turbo Pascal. Still, the logic shouldn't change regardless of the programming language. Of course, anyone who did this in TPascal would need to know what format to output the RUs in so that they could be loaded into the database so that official roll-up sheets could be printed. Doing it by hand would be some really tedius data entry.

Quote:
and yes i think one xeceptional stat 25 percent of the time would be about right 2 less than that 3 even less but all should be possible not dyo quality but it should be possibel to be close to that


One thing to keep in mind that not all of those exceptionals are falling on Wit, Will or Deftness. Some are in Strength, Con, Size or Speed. Plus, they're both exceptional on the high end and on the low. That's why I was thinking 40-50% would be good.

Okay, enough theorizing for me. I must be off to bed so that I can go to work in order to support my DM habit.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2006 1:41 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Several additional comments ...

As said before, everyone wants better quality rollups. So do we. But we firmly believe that the reason we all want more, is because the tournament requirements are driving the expectations higher nowadays. We "vote" for better rollups, but we must all be careful that better rollups do not further alter the game to "tournament only".

We do not agree, Guardian, et all, that the warrior size data base is different than it used to be. Our data of hundreds+ show a similar distribution to the yesteryear. The rollups of the 80s and 90s and 00s are similar. (all pretty mediocre/bad!) But the expectations of the 00s is clearly much, much higher.

If the size model were to be generated like a bell-shaped curve, there would be a very very low proportion (under 1%) of 3's and 21's. Our curves seem "right on".

We do not see the Size 16 anomole (sp) that Drake does. (Drake, are you 6'4" tall? Must be the St Louis water.)

Don't take us wrong. We could go for better rollups in arenas. We also agree that the roll generator is "poor" and could be improved. We are simply stating that any change that is being proclaimed is in the "much higher expectations" we all have nowadays.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2006 6:04 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Just a few more numbers for folks to crunch on.

I pulled the following data from Terrablood's site (specifically this page http://www.terrablood.com/cgi-bin/calc.cgi?dmgb ) and threw it into a spreadsheet to get the percentages:

03 SZ | 0058 | 00.8%
04 SZ | 0121 | 01.6%
05 SZ | 0235 | 03.1%
06 SZ | 0267 | 03.5%
07 SZ | 0413 | 05.4%
08 SZ | 0431 | 05.6%
09 SZ | 0570 | 07.4%
10 SZ | 0653 | 08.5%
11 SZ | 0639 | 08.3%
12 SZ | 1228 | 15.9%
13 SZ | 0567 | 07.4%
14 SZ | 0568 | 07.4%
15 SZ | 0880 | 11.4%
16 SZ | 0365 | 04.7%
17 SZ | 0269 | 03.5%
18 SZ | 0172 | 02.2%
19 SZ | 0124 | 01.6%
20 SZ | 0088 | 01.1%
21 SZ | 0053 | 00.7%

Total Surveyed: 7701

This data supports Guardian's statement that one of the big problems with the RU Generator is a much too high tendancy for Size 15.

I told you that a larger statistical sample would yeild different results than the teeny sample in my warrior database would. Razz

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    blackstorm
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    PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2006 7:26 am Reply with quoteBack to top

    Are replacements arena based, meaning each arena has its own program/criteria? Or is it one program for all? I only ask because the replacement I've been getting are much smaller in some arenas, but that could just be "luck".

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    PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2006 8:47 am Reply with quoteBack to top

    This data is polluted as well tho, its only warriors that were entered to terrabloods site. It's also warriors that trained strength listed multiple times while others were listed once. But size isnt the problem, its big size + no wit and no will. More specifically guys with no wil and no wit.

    Drake wrote:
    Just a few more numbers for folks to crunch on.

    I pulled the following data from Terrablood's site (specifically this page http://www.terrablood.com/cgi-bin/calc.cgi?dmgb ) and threw it into a spreadsheet to get the percentages:

    03 SZ | 0058 | 00.8%
    04 SZ | 0121 | 01.6%
    05 SZ | 0235 | 03.1%
    06 SZ | 0267 | 03.5%
    07 SZ | 0413 | 05.4%
    08 SZ | 0431 | 05.6%
    09 SZ | 0570 | 07.4%
    10 SZ | 0653 | 08.5%
    11 SZ | 0639 | 08.3%
    12 SZ | 1228 | 15.9%
    13 SZ | 0567 | 07.4%
    14 SZ | 0568 | 07.4%
    15 SZ | 0880 | 11.4%
    16 SZ | 0365 | 04.7%
    17 SZ | 0269 | 03.5%
    18 SZ | 0172 | 02.2%
    19 SZ | 0124 | 01.6%
    20 SZ | 0088 | 01.1%
    21 SZ | 0053 | 00.7%

    Total Surveyed: 7701

    This data supports Guardian's statement that one of the big problems with the RU Generator is a much too high tendancy for Size 15.

    I told you that a larger statistical sample would yeild different results than the teeny sample in my warrior database would. Razz
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      PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2006 9:15 am Reply with quoteBack to top

      pipthetroll wrote:
      This data is polluted as well tho, its only warriors that were entered to terrabloods site. It's also warriors that trained strength listed multiple times while others were listed once. But size isnt the problem, its big size + no wit and no will. More specifically guys with no wil and no wit.


      True, but I don't think that there is anywhere that we can get unpolluted data. Our next best option, then, would be as large a sample size as possible in order to hopefully "dilute" the polution. Also, unless warriors at Size 15 are training Strength significantly more often than warriors of other sizes, training entries shouldn't skew the results that much. Plus we've now got 3 different sources showing a high size bias: Terrablood's site, my own warrior pool & Guardian's warrior pool. We've got one conflicting source, Wayne's warrior pool but I don't know that Wayne has done a true analysis or if he's just eyeballed it.

      As to the Wit/Will being low: that's why I'd earlier made the note that any roll-ups that were generated with a Wit + Will <= 15 would need to be re-rolled automatically by the program. Heck, my original suggestion was to purge such warriors from the database (or at least significantly reduce their number), but that assumes that RSI does indeed use a static pool of RUs rather than randomly rolling new RUs each time one is needed.

      Now, since higher Size takes points away from other stats in general, higher size warriors will (on average) have lower starting Wit & Will scores. If the sizes were distributed properly (i.e. there wasn't a bias twoard 15), the overall average number of decent Wit & Will roll-ups would increase. Weather or not this would significantly increase the number is a matter of what you consider significant but the number would rise.

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      PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2006 9:16 am Reply with quoteBack to top

      blackstorm wrote:
      Are replacements arena based, meaning each arena has its own program/criteria? Or is it one program for all? I only ask because the replacement I've been getting are much smaller in some arenas, but that could just be "luck".


      There are those who have suspected that they're arena based, but I've never see any evidence to support it.

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      PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2006 11:23 am Reply with quoteBack to top

      Okay, I know some of you have been waiting for this with baited breath (yeah, right), but I did some playing during luch to figure out just how useful the thus-far proposed new roll-up methods would be.

      First, I tried out my originally suggested method:
      : Set all stats to 3
      : Repeat 49 times (note my original suggestion said 43 which was wrong)
      :: Roll a number from 1 to 7 (1 = STR & 7 = DFT)
      :: If that stat is < 21 add 1 to it, otherwise re-roll.
      : If Wit + Will < 16, discard and start over.

      I then generated 10,000 roll-ups using this method and came up with the following analysis:
      * 2,483 (24.83%) had one or more stats of 15+
      * 271 (2.71%) had one or more stats of 3 or 4.
      * 2,624 (26.24%) had at least one exceptional stat (>= 15 or < 5)
      ** 2,432 (24.32%) had only one.
      ** 183 (1.83%) had two.
      ** 9 (0.09%) had three.
      ** None had 4+
      * Average Wit = 10.25
      * Average Will = 10.19
      * Size Breakdown:
      03 | 0005 | 00.05%
      04 | 0037 | 00.37%
      05 | 0189 | 01.89%
      06 | 0510 | 05.10%
      07 | 0868 | 08.68%
      08 | 1365 | 13.65%
      09 | 1535 | 15.35%
      10 | 1624 | 16.24% <-- Most Common Size
      11 | 1395 | 13.95%
      12 | 1019 | 10.19%
      13 | 0712 | 07.12%
      14 | 0396 | 03.96%
      15 | 0197 | 01.97%
      16 | 0093 | 00.93%
      17 | 0037 | 00.37%
      18 | 0012 | 00.12%
      19 | 0004 | 00.04%
      20 | 0002 | 00.02%
      21 | 0000 | 00.00% <-- Blatantly obvious flaw!

      The size generation of this method is obviously broken as the odds of a 21 are just too low. Also, the frequency of exceptional stats (especially the frequence of two exceptional stats on the same warrior) are far too low.

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      PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2006 11:25 am Reply with quoteBack to top

      I then tried a slight variation on Deke's suggested method:
      : Set all stats to 3
      : Repeat 4 times
      :: Roll a number from 1 to 7 (1 = STR & 7 = DFT)
      :: If that stat is < 18 add 4 to it, otherwise re-roll.
      : Repeat 5 times
      :: Roll a number from 1 to 7 (1 = STR & 7 = DFT)
      :: If that stat is < 19 add 3 to it, otherwise re-roll.
      : Repeat 5 times
      :: Roll a number from 1 to 7 (1 = STR & 7 = DFT)
      :: If that stat is < 20 add 2 to it, otherwise re-roll.
      : Repeat 8 times
      :: Roll a number from 1 to 7 (1 = STR & 7 = DFT)
      :: If that stat is < 21 add 1 to it, otherwise re-roll.
      : If Wit + Will < 16, discard and start over.

      With the run of 10,000 roll-ups, I got the following stats:
      * 7,547 (75.47%) had one or more stats of 15+.
      * 4,449 (44.49%) had one or more stats of 3 or 4.
      * 8,128 (81.28%) had at least one exceptional stat.
      ** 3,697 (36.97%) had one exceptional stat.
      ** 2,836 (28.36%) had two exceptional stats.
      ** 1,192 (11.92%) had three exceptional stats.
      ** 336 (3.36%) had four exceptional stats.
      ** 60 (0.6%) had five exceptional stats.
      ** 7 (0.07%) had six exceptional stats.
      ** None had all 7 exceptional stats.
      * Average Wit = 10.93
      * Average Will = 10.84
      * Size Breakdown
      03 | 0375 | 3.75%
      04 | 0477 | 4.77%
      05 | 0577 | 5.77%
      06 | 0761 | 7.61%
      07 | 1018 | 10.18%
      08 | 1057 | 10.57% <-- Most common size.
      09 | 0949 | 9.49%
      10 | 0940 | 9.40%
      11 | 0873 | 8.73%
      12 | 0709 | 7.09%
      13 | 0602 | 6.02%
      14 | 0466 | 4.66%
      15 | 0367 | 3.67%
      16 | 0272 | 2.72%
      17 | 0192 | 1.92%
      18 | 0133 | 1.33%
      19 | 0092 | 0.92%
      20 | 0069 | 0.69%
      21 | 0071 | 0.71%

      Average size ended up way too low and the number of exceptional stats was way too high. Obviously, something somewhere in between is needed.

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      PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2006 11:28 am Reply with quoteBack to top

      Finally, I played around a bit and came up with the following method:
      : Determine Size via 3d7 (produces a nice bell curve).
      ** Needs to be done first as you can't add points to size
      ** Should average pretty close to 12.
      : Set remaining stats = 3.
      : Repeat 52 - Size times:
      :: Roll 1-6 (1 = STR, 6 = DFT, skip Size)
      :: If stat < 21, add one to that stat, otherwise re-roll.
      : If Wit + Will < 16, discard and start over.

      Running this one 10,000 times came up with the following:
      * 3,820 (38.20%) had one or more stats of 15+.
      * 444 (4.44%) had one or more stats of 3 or 4.
      * 3,986 (39.86%) had at least one exceptional stat.
      ** 3,579 (35.79%) had one exceptional stat.
      ** 376 (3.76%) had two exceptional stats.
      ** 30 (0.3%) had three exceptional stats.
      ** 1 (0.01%) had four exceptional stats.
      ** None had five or more exceptional stats.
      * Average Wit = 9.99
      * Average Will = 10.03
      * Size Breakdown
      03 | 0038 | 0.38%
      04 | 0102 | 1.02%
      05 | 0221 | 2.21%
      06 | 0331 | 3.31%
      07 | 0450 | 4.50%
      08 | 0690 | 6.90%
      09 | 0832 | 8.32%
      10 | 1014 | 10.14%
      11 | 1082 | 10.82%
      12 | 1150 | 11.50% <-- Most common size
      13 | 0980 | 9.80%
      14 | 0908 | 9.08%
      15 | 0782 | 7.82%
      16 | 0583 | 5.83%
      17 | 0396 | 3.96%
      18 | 0238 | 2.38%
      19 | 0115 | 1.15%
      20 | 0070 | 0.70%
      21 | 0018 | 0.18%

      This method produces a total number of exceptional stats I'm more comfortable with, though the instances of 2 or 3 exceptionals may be a bit too rare. This also obviously fixes the Size problems, though the extremes may still be a bit too infrequent. A 2d10+1 method would theoretically produce a curve like this:
      03 | 01 | 1%
      04 | 02 | 2%
      05 | 03 | 3%
      06 | 04 | 4%
      07 | 05 | 5%
      08 | 06 | 6%
      09 | 07 | 7%
      10 | 08 | 8%
      11 | 09 | 9%
      12 | 10 | 10%
      13 | 09 | 9%
      14 | 08 | 8%
      15 | 07 | 7%
      16 | 06 | 6%
      17 | 05 | 5%
      18 | 04 | 4%
      19 | 03 | 3%
      20 | 02 | 2%
      21 | 01 | 1%

      If anyone has any suggestions for another method for me to try out, feel free to let me know and I'll see if I can crunch the numbers.

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      Deric (Drake) Page
      Currently MIA
      Playing since 1988 (North Fork turn 10)
      Known primarily for being a wise-ass
      ****
      Success is not the result of spontaneous combustion. You have to set yourself on fire. - Unknown
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