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Duel2 :: View topic - Roll Up Pool
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guardian
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2006 1:20 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

it is entirley possible that sz is affected by arena somone hinted to me one time that it might be in the code based on the citires natural population , i never gave it much credence though .



1 there used to be a static pool of rollups and you simply go tthe next one in the que when you dark arenad a warrior

2 that is no longer thewcase and they are generated differently therefore the distibution is definatley different , it is not possible for it not to be different

3 yes expectations are higher , but that is only part of the issue , the fact is based on the numbers the percentages of sizes are genertaed in the following classes


sz 3-4 same percentage chance
sz 6-7 same percentage chance
sz 8-16 same percentageg chance
sz 17-20 same percentage chance
sz 21 same percentage chance


the exact percentages who knows but its diminishes at the top and bottom and all the ones in the middle are the same and 15 and 16 shouldnt be the same its why we get so many crappy replacements

the idea of randomly generating the replacements was player fueld we asked for it

data is always skewed but the dat is tha data and if everyone keeps track of every replacement they get it will show that there are too many sz 15 and 16 warriors that should have been sz 8-14 that alone would make dark arenaing warriors much less painfull .

and as i have repeatedly stated i want it fixed becasue it will improve my interest in basic no tthe tourney game i can get all the tourney warriors i want simply by buying 125 rollups ill get every warrior that irun in tounreys for 625 dollars thats 625 warriors out of that ill get 117 warriors that i consistentyl run in tourneys ( yes ive done it ) my last 100 dark arenas have yielded like 8 warriors i run at a cost of about the same money when you figure in running 1 warrior daing 4 and the base tourney fee , the change will do nothing to get me tourney warriors over what i can already do for 625 dollars but it will get me to run in a cpl basic arenas every turn .


guardian

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Woody
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2006 7:27 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Drake wrote:



Interesting. Based on this, I just ran a query on all the RUs in my warrior database (only a few hundred warriors) and came up with the following breakdown of sizes:

03 0.90%
04 2.25%
05 1.35%
06 1.80%
07 7.21%
08 8.11%
09 8.56%
10 8.56%
11 9.01%
12 10.36%
13 11.26%
14 6.31%
15 5.86%
16 10.36%
17 3.15%
18 1.80%
19 1.35%
20 0.90%
21 0.90%

Size 16 does seem to be significantly out of whack.


Are all the RU's in your database unique, or are some redundant?

Can you say exactly how many warriors this is?

I'm curious because this distribution can be statistically checked to see how out-of-whack it really is.
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Drake
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 5:35 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Woody wrote:
Are all the RU's in your database unique, or are some redundant?

Can you say exactly how many warriors this is?

I'm curious because this distribution can be statistically checked to see how out-of-whack it really is.


I don't have any duplicates. The total size of my warrior pool is 222. The margin of error for that pool is about 8.7% and has an average Standard Error of around 1.4% (assuming I've done my math correct) .

The Terrablood data contained 7701 samples. Some of which are the same warrior training multiple times. However, this only matters if specific Size warriors are training more often than other Sizes and I see no evidence to suggest that. The MoE of that pool is 1.5% and the average SE is about 0.2%.

Also, if you compare the Size distribution of my pool next to the Terrablood data, you'll see that the Size frequencies are pretty close (with the exceptions of Size 15 & 16). I would imagine we'd get similar numbers out of Guardian's pool if we had that data. Wayne's pool is harder to guess since he reports different results. I'd suspect that the only significant differences between Wayne's pool & the others would be around sizes 15 & 16.

If someone has another pool of data for us to analyse, then feel free to point me to it. I suppose that if someone really wanted to do all the work (not me) you could go through and build a database out of all the RU posted to the Roll-Up topic on this site. Of course, that will also have a bias; toward hard-to-design roll-ups. If you're looking for unbiased RU data, you're not going to find it anywhere outside of having RSI send you several hundred DA replacements and posting them all here. So, who has about 400-500 warriors they want to DA all at once to give us some clean data? Razz

However, another thing to consider is that Guardian has had this Size 15 & 16 bias confirmed by a formar RSI programmer, and the frequency of players complaining about the number of high size, low Wit/Will replacements they get has always been high.

There is a lot of evidence to support the theory that the method by which roll-ups are generated is broken. Is there anyone here who thinks it's not?

If we all agree that it is broken, it really doesn't matter by how much. What matters is what we can do to fix it. Several fixes have already been suggested. So, the actual useful thing to discuss at this point would be "which fix do we want employed and how do we get RSI to employ it". Quibbling over just how much the RU pool is out of whack will get us no where.

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guardian
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 8:23 am Reply with quoteBack to top

well my idea all along has been to come up with 3 or so proposals that we could all endorse ( no dissention is critical ) and forward them to lee

idea number 1

lee, we the players feell that the dark arena is an unfair means of building a team in a cost effective manner that allows us to play basic in a consistent manner , we realize that large chanes can casue devastating consequences so we would like to see a small change in how dark arena replacements are generated , simply put we would like to see less sz 15 and 16 warriors , with the additional distribution of these warriors being placed in the sz 8-14 range .

we further propose a tet period of 3 months to see if it helps us build runnable full teams in basic arena's in a consistent manner , if it shows some promise , but not enough perhaps you could then up the percentages even more .

now what ?

you cut and paste it to a seperate topic you dont debate it or look to change it you simply agree or disagree and if no one disagrees we send it to lee with all the manager names attached


guardian

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blackstorm
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 9:00 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Sorry for the post on the other thread. I should have seen this one first. Sign me on that or tell me how. Very Happy

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Drake
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 11:21 am Reply with quoteBack to top

guardian wrote:
well my idea all along has been to come up with 3 or so proposals that we could all endorse ( no dissention is critical ) and forward them to lee

idea number 1

lee, we the players feell that the dark arena is an unfair means of building a team in a cost effective manner that allows us to play basic in a consistent manner , we realize that large chanes can casue devastating consequences so we would like to see a small change in how dark arena replacements are generated , simply put we would like to see less sz 15 and 16 warriors , with the additional distribution of these warriors being placed in the sz 8-14 range .

we further propose a tet period of 3 months to see if it helps us build runnable full teams in basic arena's in a consistent manner , if it shows some promise , but not enough perhaps you could then up the percentages even more .

now what ?

you cut and paste it to a seperate topic you dont debate it or look to change it you simply agree or disagree and if no one disagrees we send it to lee with all the manager names attached


guardian


Sounds like a plan to me. I'll endorse it.

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The Consortium
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 12:08 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

OK, we, too, will endorse.

Perhaps someone (Drake is good with words) would write/clean/spiffy up the recommendation?

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guardian
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 7:45 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

sure isnt going to be me to spiffy it up Wink

guardian

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nuln
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 8:00 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

The Consortium wrote:
OK, we, too, will endorse.

Perhaps someone (Drake is good with words) would write/clean/spiffy up the recommendation?


i give permission to forge my signature if necessary.
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Stik
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 9:00 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I will sign it/support it, also. I think we should put in something regarding the other aspect of this discussion, that being increasing the percentage chance of getting one "outstanding" attribute that was talked about, or the minimum WT/WL modifier, that could be huge! But maybe that's asking too much...baby steps...

The more I think about it, the more I think these changes to the rollup pool or generator will really make a difference, starting from the basement on up. And it wouldn't be a sudden, game altering thing, either. If we present it as a benefit to RSI because more managers would be playing more warriors and in more regular arenas, it'd definitely go down smoother for them!

Where are the other big time managers on this issue??? LHI, Managerr, and others at the top of the ADM game? Too many are silent these days. I know plenty of big names virtually never post here (Doc Steele, Papa Bear, etc.), but they should be brought in on these things, their support could mean a lot! If you're lurking, speak up! It won't kill you...

Hats off to Guardian, too. You're not the best typer Wink , and you're not always the most tactful, but you're here, present and participating and voicing your concern in an effort to save the game's future and make it better for all, I believe. Kudos!! Keep it up, let's keep talking/arguing and keep ideas and discussion flowing!

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LHI
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 11:33 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I looked at my data and for 2097 discreet warriors I had these numbers:

SZ 07 = 4.7%
SZ 08 = 6.2%
SZ 09 = 7.3%
SZ 10 = 9.0%
SZ 11 = 9.7%
SZ 12 = 11.6%
SZ 13 = 11.2%
SZ 14 = 7.9%
SZ 15 = 7.4%
SZ 16 = 6.7 %
SZ 17 = 4.3%

I've only had 11 SZ 3 and 9 SZ 21.

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Apex
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 6:03 am Reply with quoteBack to top

nuln wrote:
The Consortium wrote:
OK, we, too, will endorse.

Perhaps someone (Drake is good with words) would write/clean/spiffy up the recommendation?


i give permission to forge my signature if necessary.


Count me in too.
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Adie
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 6:37 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Me too.

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guardian
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 8:18 am Reply with quoteBack to top

guys

looking at your pool of warriors isn't relevant look only at your dark arena replacements my data comes only from da replacements ,warriors off team sheets are not relevant .


the rollups are still a static pool .


guardian

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Drake
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 8:44 am Reply with quoteBack to top

The Consortium wrote:
OK, we, too, will endorse.

Perhaps someone (Drake is good with words) would write/clean/spiffy up the recommendation?


And my English/Lit degree comes back to haunt me again. Wink

I'll see if I can write up something today or tomorrow and post it in a new thread asking people to simply respond with an 'Agree' if they agree or ignore the thread if they don't (too bad we can't do polls). Then someone can point Lee to the thread (I could do it but I've never contacted Lee directly myself and it might be better coming from someone she's used to dealing with; I don't know her so I can't say if that would matter to her or not).

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