Duel2.Com  
•   Home  •  Rules  •  Your Account  •  Forums  • Newsletters  •
Navigate
· Home
· Content
· Encyclopedia
· Forums
· Members List
· Newsletters
· Old Newsletters
· Private Messages
· Setup
· Tourneys
· Your Account
User Info
Welcome, Anonymous
Nickname
Password
(Register)
Membership:
Latest: WasbytheGreat
New Today: 0
New Yesterday: 0
Overall: 104523

People Online:
Visitors:
Members:
Total: 0
Duel2.Com: Forums

Duel2 :: View topic - Roll Up Pool
 Forum FAQ  •  Search  •  Memberlist  •  Usergroups   •  Register  •  Profile  •  Log in to check your private messages  •  Log in

 
Post new topicReply to topic
View previous topic Log in to check your private messages View next topic
Author Message
guardian
Advanced Master Poster
Advanced Master Poster


Joined: Nov 05, 2002
Posts: 334

PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2006 1:20 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

it is entirley possible that sz is affected by arena somone hinted to me one time that it might be in the code based on the citires natural population , i never gave it much credence though .



1 there used to be a static pool of rollups and you simply go tthe next one in the que when you dark arenad a warrior

2 that is no longer thewcase and they are generated differently therefore the distibution is definatley different , it is not possible for it not to be different

3 yes expectations are higher , but that is only part of the issue , the fact is based on the numbers the percentages of sizes are genertaed in the following classes


sz 3-4 same percentage chance
sz 6-7 same percentage chance
sz 8-16 same percentageg chance
sz 17-20 same percentage chance
sz 21 same percentage chance


the exact percentages who knows but its diminishes at the top and bottom and all the ones in the middle are the same and 15 and 16 shouldnt be the same its why we get so many crappy replacements

the idea of randomly generating the replacements was player fueld we asked for it

data is always skewed but the dat is tha data and if everyone keeps track of every replacement they get it will show that there are too many sz 15 and 16 warriors that should have been sz 8-14 that alone would make dark arenaing warriors much less painfull .

and as i have repeatedly stated i want it fixed becasue it will improve my interest in basic no tthe tourney game i can get all the tourney warriors i want simply by buying 125 rollups ill get every warrior that irun in tounreys for 625 dollars thats 625 warriors out of that ill get 117 warriors that i consistentyl run in tourneys ( yes ive done it ) my last 100 dark arenas have yielded like 8 warriors i run at a cost of about the same money when you figure in running 1 warrior daing 4 and the base tourney fee , the change will do nothing to get me tourney warriors over what i can already do for 625 dollars but it will get me to run in a cpl basic arenas every turn .


guardian

_________________
im guardian who the f... are you !.
View user's profileSend private messageSend e-mail
Woody
Grandmaster Poster
Grandmaster Poster


Joined: Nov 01, 2005
Posts: 989
Location: Lake Powell

PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2006 7:27 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Drake wrote:



Interesting. Based on this, I just ran a query on all the RUs in my warrior database (only a few hundred warriors) and came up with the following breakdown of sizes:

03 0.90%
04 2.25%
05 1.35%
06 1.80%
07 7.21%
08 8.11%
09 8.56%
10 8.56%
11 9.01%
12 10.36%
13 11.26%
14 6.31%
15 5.86%
16 10.36%
17 3.15%
18 1.80%
19 1.35%
20 0.90%
21 0.90%

Size 16 does seem to be significantly out of whack.


Are all the RU's in your database unique, or are some redundant?

Can you say exactly how many warriors this is?

I'm curious because this distribution can be statistically checked to see how out-of-whack it really is.
View user's profileSend private message
Drake
Master Poster
Master Poster


Joined: Oct 27, 2002
Posts: 249
Location: St. Louis, MO

PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 5:35 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Woody wrote:
Are all the RU's in your database unique, or are some redundant?

Can you say exactly how many warriors this is?

I'm curious because this distribution can be statistically checked to see how out-of-whack it really is.


I don't have any duplicates. The total size of my warrior pool is 222. The margin of error for that pool is about 8.7% and has an average Standard Error of around 1.4% (assuming I've done my math correct) .

The Terrablood data contained 7701 samples. Some of which are the same warrior training multiple times. However, this only matters if specific Size warriors are training more often than other Sizes and I see no evidence to suggest that. The MoE of that pool is 1.5% and the average SE is about 0.2%.

Also, if you compare the Size distribution of my pool next to the Terrablood data, you'll see that the Size frequencies are pretty close (with the exceptions of Size 15 & 16). I would imagine we'd get similar numbers out of Guardian's pool if we had that data. Wayne's pool is harder to guess since he reports different results. I'd suspect that the only significant differences between Wayne's pool & the others would be around sizes 15 & 16.

If someone has another pool of data for us to analyse, then feel free to point me to it. I suppose that if someone really wanted to do all the work (not me) you could go through and build a database out of all the RU posted to the Roll-Up topic on this site. Of course, that will also have a bias; toward hard-to-design roll-ups. If you're looking for unbiased RU data, you're not going to find it anywhere outside of having RSI send you several hundred DA replacements and posting them all here. So, who has about 400-500 warriors they want to DA all at once to give us some clean data? Razz

However, another thing to consider is that Guardian has had this Size 15 & 16 bias confirmed by a formar RSI programmer, and the frequency of players complaining about the number of high size, low Wit/Will replacements they get has always been high.

There is a lot of evidence to support the theory that the method by which roll-ups are generated is broken. Is there anyone here who thinks it's not?

If we all agree that it is broken, it really doesn't matter by how much. What matters is what we can do to fix it. Several fixes have already been suggested. So, the actual useful thing to discuss at this point would be "which fix do we want employed and how do we get RSI to employ it". Quibbling over just how much the RU pool is out of whack will get us no where.

_________________
Deric (Drake) Page
Currently MIA
Playing since 1988 (North Fork turn 10)
Known primarily for being a wise-ass
****
Success is not the result of spontaneous combustion. You have to set yourself on fire. - Unknown
View user's profileSend private messageSend e-mailYahoo MessengerICQ Number
guardian
Advanced Master Poster
Advanced Master Poster


Joined: Nov 05, 2002
Posts: 334

PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 8:23 am Reply with quoteBack to top

well my idea all along has been to come up with 3 or so proposals that we could all endorse ( no dissention is critical ) and forward them to lee

idea number 1

lee, we the players feell that the dark arena is an unfair means of building a team in a cost effective manner that allows us to play basic in a consistent manner , we realize that large chanes can casue devastating consequences so we would like to see a small change in how dark arena replacements are generated , simply put we would like to see less sz 15 and 16 warriors , with the additional distribution of these warriors being placed in the sz 8-14 range .

we further propose a tet period of 3 months to see if it helps us build runnable full teams in basic arena's in a consistent manner , if it shows some promise , but not enough perhaps you could then up the percentages even more .

now what ?

you cut and paste it to a seperate topic you dont debate it or look to change it you simply agree or disagree and if no one disagrees we send it to lee with all the manager names attached


guardian

_________________
im guardian who the f... are you !.
View user's profileSend private messageSend e-mail
blackstorm
ArchMaster Poster
ArchMaster Poster


Joined: May 07, 2006
Posts: 1438
Location: Big rock in the ocean

PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 9:00 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Sorry for the post on the other thread. I should have seen this one first. Sign me on that or tell me how. Very Happy

_________________
BLACKSTORM
Champions of Steel--8,106,105
Sisters of Smash--28
Champions of Rune, Eternal Souls--31
Black Storm--47
Chaos Knights--52
Eye of the Storm--54,104
Eve of Destruction--83
Dark Enclave--81 and more....
View user's profileSend private messageSend e-mailYahoo MessengerMSN Messenger
Drake
Master Poster
Master Poster


Joined: Oct 27, 2002
Posts: 249
Location: St. Louis, MO

PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 11:21 am Reply with quoteBack to top

guardian wrote:
well my idea all along has been to come up with 3 or so proposals that we could all endorse ( no dissention is critical ) and forward them to lee

idea number 1

lee, we the players feell that the dark arena is an unfair means of building a team in a cost effective manner that allows us to play basic in a consistent manner , we realize that large chanes can casue devastating consequences so we would like to see a small change in how dark arena replacements are generated , simply put we would like to see less sz 15 and 16 warriors , with the additional distribution of these warriors being placed in the sz 8-14 range .

we further propose a tet period of 3 months to see if it helps us build runnable full teams in basic arena's in a consistent manner , if it shows some promise , but not enough perhaps you could then up the percentages even more .

now what ?

you cut and paste it to a seperate topic you dont debate it or look to change it you simply agree or disagree and if no one disagrees we send it to lee with all the manager names attached


guardian


Sounds like a plan to me. I'll endorse it.

_________________
Deric (Drake) Page
Currently MIA
Playing since 1988 (North Fork turn 10)
Known primarily for being a wise-ass
****
Success is not the result of spontaneous combustion. You have to set yourself on fire. - Unknown
View user's profileSend private messageSend e-mailYahoo MessengerICQ Number
The Consortium
ArchMaster Poster
ArchMaster Poster


Joined: Nov 23, 2002
Posts: 10133
Location: on the golf course, in the garden, reading, traveling, and now Consulting

PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 12:08 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

OK, we, too, will endorse.

Perhaps someone (Drake is good with words) would write/clean/spiffy up the recommendation?

_________________
The Consortium: Crapmaster 2013, Crapgiver 2014; 1213 ADM graduates (40+ manager IDs) including 176K+ fights and 118K+ wins plus 4 teams with 1500+ wins (Animal Farm DM11 @2085; Bulldogs DM11 @ 1976; Lenpros DM30 @ 1792; Fandils DM46 @1727
View user's profileSend private messageSend e-mail
guardian
Advanced Master Poster
Advanced Master Poster


Joined: Nov 05, 2002
Posts: 334

PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 7:45 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

sure isnt going to be me to spiffy it up Wink

guardian

_________________
im guardian who the f... are you !.
View user's profileSend private messageSend e-mail
nuln
Advanced Master Poster
Advanced Master Poster


Joined: Aug 21, 2005
Posts: 423
Location: the chaos plains to the north

PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 8:00 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

The Consortium wrote:
OK, we, too, will endorse.

Perhaps someone (Drake is good with words) would write/clean/spiffy up the recommendation?


i give permission to forge my signature if necessary.
View user's profileSend private messageVisit poster's website
Stik
ArchMaster Poster
ArchMaster Poster


Joined: May 06, 2003
Posts: 2514
Location: Frozen Tundra of North Dakota

PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 9:00 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I will sign it/support it, also. I think we should put in something regarding the other aspect of this discussion, that being increasing the percentage chance of getting one "outstanding" attribute that was talked about, or the minimum WT/WL modifier, that could be huge! But maybe that's asking too much...baby steps...

The more I think about it, the more I think these changes to the rollup pool or generator will really make a difference, starting from the basement on up. And it wouldn't be a sudden, game altering thing, either. If we present it as a benefit to RSI because more managers would be playing more warriors and in more regular arenas, it'd definitely go down smoother for them!

Where are the other big time managers on this issue??? LHI, Managerr, and others at the top of the ADM game? Too many are silent these days. I know plenty of big names virtually never post here (Doc Steele, Papa Bear, etc.), but they should be brought in on these things, their support could mean a lot! If you're lurking, speak up! It won't kill you...

Hats off to Guardian, too. You're not the best typer Wink , and you're not always the most tactful, but you're here, present and participating and voicing your concern in an effort to save the game's future and make it better for all, I believe. Kudos!! Keep it up, let's keep talking/arguing and keep ideas and discussion flowing!

_________________
Stik
Grim Fandango (21)
Vicious Delite (33)
View user's profileSend private message
LHI
Site Admin
Site Admin


Joined: Jun 20, 2002
Posts: 1344

PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2006 11:33 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I looked at my data and for 2097 discreet warriors I had these numbers:

SZ 07 = 4.7%
SZ 08 = 6.2%
SZ 09 = 7.3%
SZ 10 = 9.0%
SZ 11 = 9.7%
SZ 12 = 11.6%
SZ 13 = 11.2%
SZ 14 = 7.9%
SZ 15 = 7.4%
SZ 16 = 6.7 %
SZ 17 = 4.3%

I've only had 11 SZ 3 and 9 SZ 21.

_________________
More TCs please!
View user's profileSend private messageSend e-mailVisit poster's websiteAIM AddressICQ Number
Apex
ArchMaster Poster
ArchMaster Poster


Joined: Jul 01, 2002
Posts: 1647
Location: Sevierville, Tennessee

PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 6:03 am Reply with quoteBack to top

nuln wrote:
The Consortium wrote:
OK, we, too, will endorse.

Perhaps someone (Drake is good with words) would write/clean/spiffy up the recommendation?


i give permission to forge my signature if necessary.


Count me in too.
View user's profileSend private messageSend e-mailYahoo MessengerMSN Messenger
Adie
ArchMaster Poster
ArchMaster Poster


Joined: Aug 12, 2003
Posts: 1274
Location: Orange County, CA

PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 6:37 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Me too.

_________________
Steve (Adie/Tankesh)
respect: noun. Willingness to show consideration or appreciation.
transitive verb. To avoid violation of or interference with.
View user's profileSend private messageYahoo Messenger
guardian
Advanced Master Poster
Advanced Master Poster


Joined: Nov 05, 2002
Posts: 334

PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 8:18 am Reply with quoteBack to top

guys

looking at your pool of warriors isn't relevant look only at your dark arena replacements my data comes only from da replacements ,warriors off team sheets are not relevant .


the rollups are still a static pool .


guardian

_________________
im guardian who the f... are you !.
View user's profileSend private messageSend e-mail
Drake
Master Poster
Master Poster


Joined: Oct 27, 2002
Posts: 249
Location: St. Louis, MO

PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2006 8:44 am Reply with quoteBack to top

The Consortium wrote:
OK, we, too, will endorse.

Perhaps someone (Drake is good with words) would write/clean/spiffy up the recommendation?


And my English/Lit degree comes back to haunt me again. Wink

I'll see if I can write up something today or tomorrow and post it in a new thread asking people to simply respond with an 'Agree' if they agree or ignore the thread if they don't (too bad we can't do polls). Then someone can point Lee to the thread (I could do it but I've never contacted Lee directly myself and it might be better coming from someone she's used to dealing with; I don't know her so I can't say if that would matter to her or not).

_________________
Deric (Drake) Page
Currently MIA
Playing since 1988 (North Fork turn 10)
Known primarily for being a wise-ass
****
Success is not the result of spontaneous combustion. You have to set yourself on fire. - Unknown
View user's profileSend private messageSend e-mailYahoo MessengerICQ Number
Display posts from previous:      
Post new topicReply to topic
View previous topic Log in to check your private messages View next topic
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum



Powered by phpBB 2.0.10 © 2001 phpBB Group

Version 2.0.6 of PHP-Nuke Port by Tom Nitzschner © 2002 www.toms-home.com
Forums ©
:: fisubsilver shadow phpbb2 style by Daz :: PHP-Nuke theme by coldblooded (www.nukemods.com) ::