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Duel2 :: View topic - Really Bad Tourney Training
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DonaldTrump
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Joined: Jun 19, 2014
Posts: 13
Location: Livermore, CA

PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:23 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Over time, I've become accustomed to poor training at the higher levels of ADM. However, my hope has always been that my natural 21 WL warriors, once they started training stats, would bring the speedy improvements I crave.

So it was with much anticipation that I awaited the results of my first Freshman bust, a warrior who had gone 1-3 and 4-3 in Freshman's pre-bust.

Going in with a 24 WL, I was training DF for a 2nd time (half of 99% chance of success?), WT for a 3rd time (ditto), and WL for a 4th train.

My warrior missed every single train in his 5-3 run.

Statistically, how improbable is that?

DF: (24*5)/2 = 60% chance of success. 40% chance of failure. Missed 2 times
WT: (24*5)/2 =60%. Missed 3 times.
WL: (24*5)/4 = 30%. Missed 3 times.

If my college statistics (a distant memory, to be sure) don't fail me, that's approximately a

.4 * .4 * .4 * .4 * .4 *.7 *.7 * .7 = Less than 1% chance of missing 8 consecutive trains.

First of all, is my math correct? Secondly, did anyone else have such miserable training results as I?
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gentleben
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Joined: Aug 21, 2008
Posts: 3714
Location: Round Rock, Tx

PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:43 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

The tournament is at 50% of what you would have in the arena. So the highest percent chance is 50, so I assume your 60% is actually at 30%

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DonaldTrump
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Joined: Jun 19, 2014
Posts: 13
Location: Livermore, CA

PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:44 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

gentleben wrote:
The tournament is at 50% of what you would have in the arena. So the highest percent chance is 50, so I assume your 60% is actually at 30%


Right, tourney training is at half %. The 60% was a guess. Half of normal arena: 24 WL * 5% = 120%, which of course doesn't make sense mathematically (my guess is the max is 99%, but I've never seen a 20+ WL fighter miss a first train myself).

DT
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The Consortium
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Joined: Nov 23, 2002
Posts: 9356
Location: on the golf course, in the garden, reading, traveling, and now Consulting

PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:54 am Reply with quoteBack to top

DonaldTrump wrote:
gentleben wrote:
The tournament is at 50% of what you would have in the arena. So the highest percent chance is 50, so I assume your 60% is actually at 30%


Right, tourney training is at half %. The 60% was a guess. Half of normal arena: 24 WL * 5% = 120%, which of course doesn't make sense mathematically (my guess is the max is 99%, but I've never seen a 20+ WL fighter miss a first train myself).

DT


Over time, we have missed a first train once with 20 WL, and once with 21 WL!

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1058 ADM graduates (with 40+ manager IDs) including 128K+ fights and 82K+ wins plus 4 teams with 1000+ wins (Animal Farm DM11 @1702*; Bulldogs DM11 @ 1631; Lenpros DM30 @ 1544; Fandils DM46 @
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The Consortium
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Joined: Nov 23, 2002
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Location: on the golf course, in the garden, reading, traveling, and now Consulting

PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:55 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Above was in arenas, not tournaments. Cry

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Ye Old Consortium Scribe & Crapmaster 2013, Crapgiver 2014
1058 ADM graduates (with 40+ manager IDs) including 128K+ fights and 82K+ wins plus 4 teams with 1000+ wins (Animal Farm DM11 @1702*; Bulldogs DM11 @ 1631; Lenpros DM30 @ 1544; Fandils DM46 @
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DonaldTrump
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Joined: Jun 19, 2014
Posts: 13
Location: Livermore, CA

PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:16 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Quick update!

One of my reprinted fights showed I actually made a (third) WT train, so my bust wasn't a total loss. Still 1/8 with a 24 WL was not quite what I was hoping for.

But, I press on. Now setting up for an ADM bust, years down the line.

DT
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