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Duel2 :: View topic - July 2020 Mail-In SPOILERS (and teasers and comments)
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The Consortium
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Joined: Nov 23, 2002
Posts: 9780
Location: on the golf course, in the garden, reading, traveling, and now Consulting

PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:30 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Here's the spot. No surprises!


Use the spoiler file.

_________________
The Consortium: Crapmaster 2013, Crapgiver 2014; 1180 ADM graduates (40+ manager IDs) including 161K+ fights and 108K+ wins plus 4 teams with 1500+ wins (Animal Farm DM11 @1998; Bulldogs DM11 @ 1908; Lenpros DM30 @ 1732; Fandils DM46 @1642
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One Armed Bandit
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:44 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Some teasers from Lee were passed along by Mgrr in Chatzy:

- The biggest tourney was Rookies with 591 warriors.

- Contenders was the smallest at 112 warriors.

- Adepts was the shortest tourney at 14 rounds.

- Apprentices went the longest with 19 rounds.
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Vladimer
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Joined: Jul 15, 2014
Posts: 167

PostPosted: Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:11 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Here there be spoilers, so read at your own risk...




























Welcome to the Rona Tine™ Involuntary Confinement sequel, “Live Free and Die Hard”, version of the Monday Morning Tourney Quarterback (MMTQB)! With everyone mostly back under house arrest – I’m currently in quarantine for the next week – I thought it would be good to pass on any particular themes during this challenging time while reviewing my crew’s performance. Let’s go to the tapes!



Quotes Of The Week


“With all the extra stylemaster prizes being offered, it will be quite easy to have a successful tourney without TCing” -- One Armed Bandit

This. I had the best tourney I’ve ever had by far and did not TC. Although it didn’t feel “quite easy”!



““Seven. Seven was when Ethan had learned to ride a bicycle.” – Anne Tyler, The Accidental Tourist

My Accidental Tourist Bust™ went way better than expected. He won seven fights. I watched him hit 24 WL but not 25. I anxiously watched him progress from 18 wit to cheer nailing the 21 wit, achieving his Grandmaster in Attack (my fourth). He did this after coming out of the gate at 0-2. Yes, thanks for asking, I am quite proud of him.



“A woman's dress should be like a barbed-wire fence: serving its purpose without obstructing the view.” – Sophia Loren

There is an iconic photo of Sophia Loren viewing Jayne Mansfield’s, uh, assets out of the corner of her eyes at a Hollywood party. Here’s a link if you haven’t seen it:

https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2014/11/story-behind-infamous-sophia-loren-jayne-mansfield-photo

I was strongly reminded of this photo as I Lime Sheet Limboed™ my way through rooks on day two. I believe I bore a striking resemblance to Sophia as I looked sideways at how much rooks paper I had left. Answer? Not much! Not enough! I mean, seriously, I went into round 9 with 9 of my 31 rooks. When the dust settles, I am looking in vain for some confirmed TVs since 4 of those were at 7-1. And literally, every 7-1 lost and most of the 6-2’s won. So now I am entering round 10 with 7 warriors, all of whom are at 7-2, with a lot less paper left. Four of those are wastes who do not believe single-digit-minute fights! Another sideways glance tells me that I only have a few sheets left!

I began to wonder if I didn’t get all of my rooks prints.

So come round 11, the three remaining wastes are just a-scumming away opponents in 20-minute, three-page fights. You know, like they do. I need that paper!!! Some even have the nerve to lose after wasting those precious pages. Ridiculous. I only have a few paltry pages left now.

Fast forward to round 14 where Miguel, my sole remaining warrior, takes down a tough TP in Sugar Hydra to leave Sugar with two losses. I literally have two pages left. Round 15 brings a win against TMM’s Richard and I have a single page left… Is it Hydra? That would mean the finals! Green Eyes said the longest class was 19 rounds in Apps and this would be round 16….

OhpleaseOhpleaseOhpleaseOhplease… I ran out paper.




“Adepts was the shortest tourney at 14 rounds.” – Green Eyes

Thank you, Green Eyes, for that glorious day and a half where I thought my warrior Melton had Runner Upped Adepts based on this teaser. After an incredible run, managing an 11-0 start with some tough wins against such luminaries as Pillar of Salt, Beezlebug and Fifth Rate -- this latter twice! – Melton went out at 11-3. That last fight against tDO's Murder Hornet must have been the final, right? Wrong!

Thank you, Howlin’ Wolf, for popping the bubble to bring me back to reality!



“Mostly dead is slightly alive. With all dead, well, with all dead there's usually only one thing you can do.”
“What's that?”
“Go through his clothes and look for loose change.” Miracle Max, Inigo Montoya, The Princess Bride

Bear with me. But I sort of see this scenario: All-In struts onto the arena sands with his precious Adepts AB Stylemaster potion that, apparently, had just been handed to him as the last Aimed Blow standing in Champs. Now, when All-In goes all out on a dirt nap on the sands courtesy my warrior, you know my guy is gonna check his pockets. Let’s just send that potion over where it belongs, shall we?



“You had one job!” – Don Cheadle, Oceans Eleven

When I was ready to call it a night on Day One, I believe after Inits, I decided to do a read through of the mailer blood games. It was a relaxing way to close the evening. I had a little wine left, and I don’t bother recording the BGs since I generally don’t have any success. This began as no exception, with a slow burn through the rounds until I realized that I had one warrior sitting at 9-0-4 in round 9. Not only that, but it was a waste (currently enjoying the style tremendously) and the Da Rose warrior was a fun play on both the team theme and BoV’s name.

So, it’s slightly after midnight and I check the BG newsletter for round 9 to see where 9-0-4 puts BoV’s namesake… Look at that, in second place!! If I understand the rules – a dubious proposition given my lack of experience in BGs – she only needs to survive her last fight to get out given the records of those around her! I can’t believe I am going to get BoV’s namesake out as my second BG grad ever. How funny!

Round ten, dead.

Let me tell you, if you ever get the chance to wake your spouse up and tell them the warrior named after them died in round ten and just missed graduating from your nerd game Olympics, don’t.



Awards Of The Week


A baker’s dozen thirteen warriors did well enough to get the TV prize, Bob E. Sox™ autographed greaves. A few warriors clawed their way right up close to the coveted TC prize, an autographed combat-rated Bob E. Fett™ autographed Mandalorian-style helm, but were masterfully defeated within sight, if not within reach, of it.

Having entered 75 warriors, and achieved 13 awards, the 10% Cool Manager litmus is so last tourney. I thought I had achieved the good life before! Man, you have no idea what it means until you enter the 15+% TV Ridiculous Manager™ club.

Restaurants I used to have to reserve months in advance now have a table in the VIP section (which I hadn’t known existed) at the ready in case I put in an appearance. I have dedicated and backup servers who carefully explain what the chef is willing to prepare that evening. They stock my favourite wines in my personal locker. The dedicated server – Misty, in the case of De Chambos – brings me discarded tDO team sheets to peruse as the chef prepares my dinner. There are after-dinner, ah, relaxation options. I like to think of this as Social Distancing Done Right™.

The TV’s included 5 STs under Floyd’s Theory of Tourney Optimization™ , four wastes, two lungers and two – spoiler alert! – bashers. The TVs spanned rooks through adepts and averaged 12.5 rounds each.



Stats Of The Week

All told, the 75 warriors achieved 323 wins, 218 losses, killed 10 posers and parted ways with 4 wannabes. This equates to a 59.70% win ratio which immediately entitles me to a better arena box from which to observe my warriors fighting. I can actually see, in the distance, of course, TMM in his box at the front of the arena. Exciting!

Best style: Bashers at 70%. Yes, you read that right. Yes, Assur just got a stiffie.

Worst Style: Being too stupid to stick to the Mr Right Handed contest, I also ran a second PS in rooks. Combined win percentage = 40%.

Best Class: Initiates at 70%. Boned it like I owned it!

Worst Class: Challengers at 48%. This was my best class last tourney! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯



Goals Of The Week


Goal 1: 3-3 or better for the Accidental Tourist Bust™: Pass
Goal 2: Non-basic TV: Fail
Goal 3: Two Stylemaster Potions: Pass
Goal 4: First Basher TV: Pass
Goal 5: Make a finals fight: Fail
Goal 6: Rooks WS TV: Pass
Goal 7: More kills than deaths: Pass
Overall: Pass!



Factoids that may only interest me

I. According to Watson, a big hole in my tourney appears to be warriors SZ 9 or larger without a 21 WT or a 21 WL. Compared to 60% overall, this group of 11 warriors only achieved 43% win/loss. Might have to add that lens to October’s candidates.

II. Only 5 out of 75 warriors went winless. None had the excuse of dying. One was a warrior named Bubba that I had made a note to drop but ultimately decided not to, so, shame on me.

III. In looking at the individual warrior stats with a value of 21 in relation to win percentages, WT led WL which led DF in a pretty straight stepdown of 61% to 55% to 50%. In looking at combinations, WL+WL led at 76%, with WT+DF at 67% and WL+DF at 25%. Given these results are Almost Exactly™ the opposite of last tourney, I am not sure of the value in examining them going forward. Ironically, 21 of my warriors did not have a 21 in WT/WL/DF but achieved 56% W/L.



Mr. United Global Services Member Travel Note

I have a lucky travel shirt. No, it’s true. I wear it on any flight of decent distance, including to Tempe or Frankfurt. The back of it says “Bite my buns!” Since the Frankfurt flight generally include people who commute by flying 8 hours Saturday night and 9 hours back on Friday, I’ve had people come up to me before, during, or after the flight and say “Were you on this flight a couple weeks ago? I recognize the shirt!”

I figure anything I can do to assist a 200-ton aircraft continuing to stay aloft at 550 mph is welcome. Having survived a ton of flights already, it is obviously working.

That reminds me, when I was a little kid, my grandfather would take us to the shore. When we got there, he would start snapping his fingers. *Snap* *Snap*

“Pop Pop, why are you snapping your fingers?”

“To keep the elephants away.”

“But Pop Pop, there are no elephants at the beach!”

“See? It works!”

Anyway, so my travel shirt is a Hamburger Joes™ tee shirt from Myrtle Beach, SC. It brings me luck. Since I’m definitely not traveling at the moment, it was available to wear while reading the tourney.



Brief truths

A. It is ok to try the “TC” title on your warrior’s name when he wins his first fight convincingly. Just to see how it fits.

B. Losing to “junk”, “trash” or other warriors from teams of their ilk adds extra humiliation.

C. Killing the rookie Covid-19 was apropos and ought to count for something.



Ten things I think I think

1. I think the “hold at fedex location” gets better and better right up until you’re in quarantine and can’t go pick it up.

2. I think one of the reasons I am enjoying ADM so much is seeing the legends across the sands. I think if your most promising ADM warrior draws both Surly Deckhand and Ruth, he gets a pass on performance targets.

3. I think that no matter the end result, winning the first tourney fight you read is immensely gratifying. Hope comes and sits on your left shoulder and she smells of something between lilac and gardenia.

4. I think the “parrying out” concept which I have heard so much about but only experienced to a limited degree in the past came home to roost for me this tourney. I think I always thought of it as a result rather than a necessary, if evil, path to victory.

5. I think the Maya The Bee vs Cat Scratch Fever fight was just as fun a read as the one Mr. Maurice had with him back in Tempe, despite the results being diametrically opposed.

6. I think getting a requisite Covid test between Freshmen and Challengers gave me a better perspective. I think the following requisite quarantine did not.

7. I think The Otto giveth in this tourney and thus will taketh away next.

8. I think my champions generally weren’t.

9. I think it was strictly topical when I saw Klaern across the sands and thought “Karen”

10. I think these are the other things I think this week:

a. I think Lime Sheet Sliding™ my Waste fights with their strategy up on the screen helped me get more out of them.

b. I think every win is precious.

c. I think I was sad when I realized Doc Steele also knew how to run lungers.

d. Coffeenerdness: I think I am ready for a Starbucks™.

e. I think Inits represented my idea of a dream round. I think the requisite components include a strong start, your warriors winning close fights, passing on opportunities to lose, learning the skills they need with multiple guys going deep. I think RUs and TCs are irrelevant at that point because they will come.

f. I think Lying Eyes of Body Language was clever.

g. I think Riff Raff running up Freshmen with a Basher was inspiring.

h. I continue to think the kill routine can lose you fights. I think I would offer as Prosecution’s Exhibit A the Round 3 Apps fight between Steel and Jurine Sample’s Gee Whiz.

i. I think Waste’s coming out hot, against both my offensives and defensives, was a thing this tourney. I think if it was a thing in prior tourneys, I missed it. I think this included both managers I respect and a TC named “Hero

j. Winenerdness: I think it was fitting when BoV opened a bottle of Optimism while I was reading my tourney, even if she didn’t understand the significance.

k. I think it’s embarrassing when I see two warriors on the sands squaring off and I cannot initially remember which is mine.

l. I think tightening up my requirements for Waste tourney entry helped.

m. I think I said to myself, “marching towards a TV” a lot this tourney.

n. Obit of the Week: 11-5-7-21-15-14-11 N/G Apprentices ST with Adex DEC, one of my warriors called out in the pre-tourney write up, Obit it at 5FE.



Who I want to like in October

10FE], will fight Dead initiates.
He was a lunger with ST=11(3) CN=8 SZ=5 WT=21 WL=21 SP=10 DF=11.
He was left handed, was a genius, was very quick and active, had a good endurance, could not
take a lot of punishment, could not carry a lot of weight, was incredibly quick and elusive,
had an Advanced Expert in initiative, had an Advanced Expert in attack, had an Advanced
Expert in defense, and had an Expert in decisiveness.



Adieu Haiku

Did not win a thing
My most successful tourney
Y’all stay safe now, hear?
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One Armed Bandit
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 02, 2020 10:49 am Reply with quoteBack to top

It has been a week since the tourney, and since nobody else has done it, here is a list of TCs and RUs (compiled by Assur and posted in Chatzy):

Tourney class: TC name style manager // Runner-Up name style manager

Primus: Dirty Zealot AB TMM // Sebastian AB LHI
Contenders: Minge the Marvelous AB TMM // Dawn AB Khisanth
Eligibles: Never Forever AB TUM // Addai AB Khisanth
ADM: Master Plan AB HowlinWolf // Ruth PR Assur
Freshmen: Hairy Monster ST Crip // Fezzir BA Trump
Challengers: The Quillian SL Floyd // Horrible Hairmonster LU TUM
Champions: Dolemite AB HowlinWolf // Gumball LU TMM
Adepts: Rho Telescopii ST OAB // Horrible Hornet ST TDO
Initiates: Rabid Hound ST Dr Feelgood // Archfire LU Doc Steele
Apprentices: Acres Home Heroes WS Destitute Noble // Meat! Meat! LU TUM
Rookies: Robert Paulson 937 LU Chief Illiniwek // Floyd's Bookie PL Destitute Noble
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One Armed Bandit
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 02, 2020 12:59 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I am not normally a good basic tourney manager. I am a numbers guy, and the numbers are pretty clear. So about a year ago, I decided on a strategy to see if I could change that.

Many years ago, there was a manager named Kellumbo who flooded a mid-level basic class with quality Strikers and other stuff. When the dust settled, he had won all the TVs and the TC. I've never been a big proponent of wingmen or flooding a class, preferring to enter a few good warriors in every class in every tourney and keep up a sustained effort. But that strategy hasn't produced results for me in basic over the years, so I decided to try to save up my good stuff and see if volume helped.

To that end, I didn't enter any Initiates in July and October of 2019, so I went to Tempe in January 2020 with 26 Initiates saved up. The 26 Initiates went 86-71-1-2 for a 55% win percentage, which was roughly in line with my tourney win percentage (54%), and they earned me 1 award, an 11-3 TV. That was not a resounding success. But nothing to do but carry on.

So for this tourney, I had 17 Adepts saved up. They went a combined 64-50-1 for a win percentage of 56%, which was again roughly in line with my tourney win percentage of 54%. And of the 17 entrants, 1 made it past round 10. So once again, my award percentage was low in this class. Perhaps the quality of my entrants was poor, or there was some other flaw in my plan, but on the surface, it doesn't appear to have worked at all. The one caveat, of course, is that the one 11+ rounder this tourney TC'd. Did all my other entries have any impact on that? I don't think so, unless its like a butterfly flapping its wings and causing a hurricane across the world.

Total entrants: 81
Record: 286-244-6-2
Awards: 1 TC, 4 TVs, 1 honorary TV (died in the runoffs), 4 stylemasters

My tourney was a good one because of the TC, but it was subpar in many other ways. I run a lot of good warriors of non-traditional tourney styles, so I was expecting more stylemasters. Also, having 6 warriors go 11+ rounds out of 81 entrants is not as good as I'd like to do. If I thought that the strategy that produced the TC was replicable, I would be more excited, but it seems that I just had a freak learner who won some dice rolls and got a TC in basic.

Before the tourney, I highlighted four warriors who I thought were my best chances to TC. Let's see how I did:

FIFTH-RATE (18-10992) of SEA DOGS (224) [6-0-0,82,20FE], will fight Adepts.

FIFTH-RATE is my DYO AB, who was born +3/+4 and seems to be Defense favorite learn. She was able to TV Rookies with Little damage, so I had hopes that with a max damage potion added, that she could go even further. This one turned out to be my worst prediction of the four, as she went 7-3 and missed out on the runoffs. Not a bad result, but not what I was hoping for.

FREEBOOTER (28-5201) of SEA DOGS (1864) [48-54-0,200,106FE], will fight Freshmen.

This warrior is a Defense learn, QS favorite AB who busted out in Freshmen. He isn't perfect, but he looked nice and had a very large bust available to him, with a starting 20 DF, 21 WL, and 8 WT. After 8 rounds, he was 8-0 in the tourney, and had gotten two DF trains and two WL trains to put him at 170 total skills. At this point, I was sure I had picked a winner.

Three rounds later, FREEBOOTER finished with an 8-3 TV, having lost to CHINA ROOM, a PL, POWER PUNCH, an open handed AB, and FEZZIK, a BA and the eventual runner-up. A disappointing finish, but my AB was really nothing special. Part of busting out lots of okay looking warriors in the ADM classes is understanding that most of them won't TC.

PICAROON (28-5202) of SEA DOGS (1864) [56-38-1,248,100FE], will fight Freshmen.

PICAROON is a 17-17 PL who was set up very nicely for a Freshmen bust-out. I had less hope for him than for my AB, but he looked like he had potential.

PICAROON got off to a less-than-ideal start when he lost to SEA URCHIN, a PS, in round 3. On his third attack, his SC broke, and he never drew a back-up. He lasted until minute 5 before he punched himself out on parries. He got back on track after that with a several round winning streak and made his way into TV territory before losing to CHINA ROOM in round 10, and finally BOZO, a BA, in round 13. He finished up at 10-3 with 172 total skills. It turned out to be a very pleasing result for a humble 17-17 PL bust-out in Freshmen.

RHO TELESCOPII (63-3447) of TELESCOPIUM (374) [8-1-0,121,20FE], will fight Adepts.

So my three previous picks had gone 7-3, 8-3, and 10-3. I have to say, this is one of my better efforts at Duel2 predictions. RHO TELESCOPII is a very normal looking Striker who began life as an 8-9-8-21-17-10-11. This has been a successful design for me in the past, but I wasn't sure if it was the numbers or the knack of the first warrior. This one had gotten me a 9-3 Initiates TV in an earlier tourney and had learned phenomenally well with high teens learns in Ini, Att, and Dec going into the tourney.

I ran RHO TELESCOPII with the Slash tactic against the field, and with the Decise tactic against pure offensives (ST, SL, BA). I honestly wasn't sure how the Slash tactic would go, but it went well. Based on his learns, she was a total offensive machine, so I wasn't worried too much about screwing up her defenses. She had none. She was going to have to win by attacking repeatedly and not letting up.

Her first loss came in round 8 against another SS wielding Striker, TOWER RECOREDS of COLLEGE RADIO APPLE. There were a few clashes, but Floyd's ST got the first attack and that was the fight right there. Her second loss came in round 11 against HORRIBLE HORNET, a TDO Striker, also wielding a SS. Even more clashes this time, then HORRIBLE HORNET got the jump. At 9-2, I figured I was in for another TV. But then she beat a LU. Then she beat a stand-in. Then she beat a TP. And then she was in the finals.

Unfortunately, her finals opponent was one of her two losses from earlier in the tourney, HORRIBLE HORNET. This fight worked out better for RHO, however. No clashes, a clean jump and a SS crit and normal later and it was over. RHO TELESCOPII had won the TC at 13-2.

----------

A couple things that I think I've learned:

First, I get a very poor return on basic warriors in tournies. Over the course of the last 14 years of tournies, I have managed 1 Initiates TC, 3 Adepts TCs, and 3 Champions TCs. That is one basic TC every 2 years, and that is running a ton of warriors. My complete lack of success in Rookies and Apprentices is also notable.

Second, I get a very poor return on prizes. Over that same time period, 14% of my TCs have been prize modified. That means 86% have been completely natural. This tourney was the perfect example. My DYO AB, who looked perfect on paper for the class, went 7-3. My natural ST, meanwhile, ended up winning the TC. Repeat this 30 times and you have my history with prize warriors.

What will I do with this information? Hopefully I can use it to fine tune my game and be a better manager.

I enjoyed competing against all of you in the July MI, and I look forward to doing it again in October. I hope you all stay safe and healthy in the meantime.
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