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Duel2 :: View topic - Jan 2021 Mail-In
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One Armed Bandit
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Joined: Apr 15, 2004
Posts: 2906

PostPosted: Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:38 am Reply with quoteBack to top

As most of you are aware, RSI is holding a Mail-In tourney instead of a FtF on the weekend of Jan 16-17.

The highlights:
- prize is 10 ZAPs
- there will be stylemaster awards for every class
- they will also be doing overnight and round-by-round Bloodgames

The last bit wasn't in the announcement, so if you want to participate in the Bloodgames, send in those 10 DYO teams by email to RSI for arenas 96 and 97!
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One Armed Bandit
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 5:17 am Reply with quoteBack to top

My strategies made it to RSI earlier in the week. Thankfully I mailed them early as my 2 day Priority Mail took 7 days to reach them.

I ended up entering 50 warriors in the January Mail-In, and a team in the overnight Bloodgames. I haven't decided yet on the regular speed Bloodgames that is due at the start of February, but will probably enter that, too.

Entrants: 50
By class: 9 Primus, 3 Contenders, 3 Eligibles, 3 ADM, 3 Freshmen, 5 Challengers, 3 Champions, 0 Adepts, 7 Initiates, 4 Apprentices, 10 Rookies
By fighting style: 15 AB, 4 BA, 4 LU, 4 PL, 4 PR, 2 PS, 4 SL 9 ST, 2 TP, 2 WS

My three strongest classes are probably ADM, Freshmen, and Champions, in no particular order. But I have good stuff sprinkled throughout, and nothing so great that I'm expecting to TC this tourney. All you can really hope for is to have a chance, and I think I have that. I'll write more details about my hopefuls once the tourney is done running over the weekend.

I decided to pay up for FedEx delivery of my tourney, which I almost never do, since the USPS has been so unreliable lately. Hopefully it is worth it!
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DestNoble
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Joined: Mar 02, 2016
Posts: 11

PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 3:35 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

We should be on what like turn 3-4 at this point? Sigh. Hope to see y'all in 2022...

I guess I'll mention that I ran 16 warriors spread across all the different non-AD classifications. Good luck all!!
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DestNoble
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Joined: Mar 02, 2016
Posts: 11

PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2021 3:37 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

We should be on what, turn 3-4 by now? Sigh. Hope to see y'all in 2022 (or maybe in Summer if there is a FTF)!
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One Armed Bandit
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 17, 2021 11:25 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Of my 50 entries, 9 are in Primus, 4 are warriors from the contest in DM 32, and several others are developing warriors at the Challengers and ADM level with little chance of immediate success. So that leaves about 30-35 warriors with good tourney potential.

I mentioned that my three best classes are probably Champions, Freshmen, and ADM, so I'll describe my hopefuls from these classes.

Champions

I have three good entries in this class.

RHO TELESCOPII of TELESCOPIUM is a 9(1)-10(1)-8-21-17-10-11 ST who TC'd Adepts in July. She only has 135 total skills, but they are concentrated in the key areas for an offensive: 20 Initiative learns, 18 Attack learns, and 20 Decisiveness learns. She will be learning skills throughout, so hopefully she will pick up those last two Attack and some other stuff along the way. I am using the same strategy that got her an Adepts TC, so I feel good in that department, but its possible that she has already peaked.

OUBLIETTE of DUNGEON CELL is a 7-7-12-21-9-7-21 AB who was the honorary runner-up in Dead Adepts in October. She is +2 Ini, +4 Att, +3 Par, +2 Def and has a total of 150 skills going into the tourney, including 17 Defense learns. She ran with the EP in her Dead Adepts run and that brought her first tourney success, so she gets to use that and the rest of the strategy again. I have no clue whether she can replicate her Dead Adepts success, but having proven herself once before, I figure she has a shot.

My third entry in the class is my untimed DYO AB, FIFTH-RATE of SEA DOGS. She hasn't TV'd since Apprentices, so I don't have high hopes. But she looks nice on paper.

Freshmen

HUMAN PRETZEL of SHEWISH MUNCHIES is probably my single best shot at winning a TC. He looks pretty ugly on paper, as he started with stats of 7-11-7-8-21-10-20 and has little to show for bonuses besides ambidexterity. He is, however, a Defense favorite learn. That, combined with the low starting skill base, allowed him to learn 20 Defense skills and remain Freshmen. He went into the freeze as a 14(7)-15(4)-7-8-21-10-20 with 130-something skills (unknown Ini), and trained WL twice and DF once to enter the tourney with 150-ish skills. Every Freshmen AB is imperfect, and HUMAN PRETZEL is no exception. His favorite weapon is the EP. He only does GOOD damage. That all said, he has a very deep bust available to him. With the starting 8 WT, 21 WL, and 20 DF, that is the equivalent of a trip-21 bust-out. So the longer he goes, the better shot he has, I think.

My two other entries in this class are hardly worth mentioning, but I will anyway. KAPPA LEONIS of LEO is an uber bonused LU who is learning skills over the line, and RAT-CATCHER of DUNGEON CELL is a PL who is testing the waters and going for CN trains.

ADM

This is probably my most fun class, as each of the three warriors is exciting to me in some way.

EIGHTH-RATE of SEA DOGS is a 25(10)-15(7)-3-21-21-5-12(1) PL who I created using a Twin potion many years ago. I am still searching for a PL TC, and I would love to get some return on this ill-used prize. That said, she will be up against ABs and LUs who are better suited to the class than her. But she is a solid 21-21 bust-out with nice favorites (LO mod/mod Dodge tactic), so I think she has a shot.

STORMCROWE PIE of SHEWISH BUFFET is my most fascinating entry, and while he probably won't do well, I am eager to read his fights. He started as an experiment with luckfactor stats, and began life as an 8-8-12-7-21-21-7 LU. He came back plenty bonused, but in mostly the wrong areas (+3 Ini, +4 Def, and +3 Dec) and fought well enough that I ran him to graduation and then set him up for ADM. He went into the freeze looking like this: 16(8)-16(8)-12-10(3)-21-21-10(3) with 175 total skills and reasonable favorites (LO high/high). I went for the 50% train to 11 WT and got it. Even then, I wasn't sure I wanted to bust him, because he only does GOOD damage and I thought he might do better in Eligibles after all. So I went for the second 50% train to 11 DF and let the fates decide. He hit that too, and then trained WL to 22. So he is going into the tourney with 193 total skills, with 3 WL trains and 4 SP trains left to train during the tourney. This warrior, who started as a luckfactor experiment, is now an experiment about how useful the non-Attack skills are in ADM. He is going in with a lot of skills and could finish up with a stupendous amount (221) if he trains WL and SP to 25 during his run. But his Attack is dreadfully low, with 13 less Attack skills going in than EIGHTH-RATE. So in a battle of quantity vs quality, what wins? I am guessing not STORMCROWE PIE, but I am on the edge of my seat to find out.

My last ADM entry and maybe not even my least, is my stat-switch Jalon named CELL BLOCK A of DUNGEON CELL. It is just testing the waters and going for its last two CN trains, but Jalons be Jalons. Sometimes they just win.

Predictions

My own personal history tells me that I have a 3 in 5 chance of winning a TC in any given tourney. If I had to bet, though, I would bet against me winning one this time.

I have some good chances, don't get me wrong. And outside of these three classes, I have some long shot chances. But the game has also seen a resurgence, with returning managers and increased competitiveness. Add the fact that this TC prize (10 ZAPs) is highly sought after, and my expectations are lower than normal.

So while I won't be surprised if I make it to a finals fight, I also won't be surprised if I walk away with nothing. That is what makes these things exciting, though, right? You don't know how things will turn out until you open that box or envelope and read the results.

I hope that everyone enjoys the tourney as much as I plan to!
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The Consortium
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Joined: Nov 23, 2002
Posts: 9909
Location: on the golf course, in the garden, reading, traveling, and now Consulting

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2021 4:20 am Reply with quoteBack to top

OAB, sandbagging once again, will win at least one TC.
That is a Consortium prediction to take to the bank. (my bank) Cool Wink

_________________
The Consortium: Crapmaster 2013, Crapgiver 2014; 1213 ADM graduates (40+ manager IDs) including 176K+ fights and 118K+ wins plus 4 teams with 1500+ wins (Animal Farm DM11 @2085; Bulldogs DM11 @ 1976; Lenpros DM30 @ 1792; Fandils DM46 @1727
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Assurnasirbanipal
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2021 9:44 am Reply with quoteBack to top

I sent 55, with distribution from Primus-Rookies:
0/3/2/8/8/5/2/7/4/6/10

I have various good warriors scattered around, but as I'm putting more and more resources into the 5 styles I haven't TC'd with yet, I realize I'm hurting my overall performance. I am looking forward to seeing the results, but fully expecting another tourney without the big prize.

I did bust two warriors this time. A good damage PL in ADM with a single 21 wit to bust. I'm 'rushing' this warrior to Primus as it will be my entry in the next KoP contest (assuming I participate). A TV with this bust would be fantastic. With low FE, good damage, and only a single 21, I know what to expect... But strange things can happen once they start fighting, so why not.

The second bust is a lot better (busting WT & DF), but almost certainly not a favorite to win. Will be fun to watch. Could easily make the runoffs (has gone 7-3 before), but it is a basher
THE CRUSHER (18-8050) of NEXT GENERATION (4678) [82-60-0,191,184FE], will fight Freshmen.
She is a basher with ST=25(12) CN=8(5) SZ=15 WT=23(2) WL=21(6) SP=10 DF=7.
She is right handed, has a superhuman intelligence, is incredibly active, is slightly
uncoordinated, has awesome endurance, can carry a tremendous weight, does devastating
damage, has a Master in initiative, has an Advanced Master in attack, has an Advanced Expert
in parry, has an Advanced Master in decisiveness, favors the mace, favors a high offensive
effort, favors a low activity level, and preferentially learns parry.

I also entered a BG's team. This is my first BG's since it became all DYO's. I still do not like BG's, but after last Tempe's two RU's (both to Jalon-type busting AB's) I am wanting to do my part to spread out the BG's prizes a bit (and ideally see fewer Jalon's come out overall).

I wish every good delivery service with their tourneys!
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Madwand
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:27 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Assurnasirbanipal wrote:


I wish everyone good delivery service with their tourneys!


This could be the best prize of all this Tourney!

Good luck to everyone. I did send in 38, mostly non ADM classes for you all to beat up on and gain some easy wins..........your welcome!

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Madwand

DM 47 Fast Food
DM 100, 102 and 106 Various Teams
And several 'Blades' Guilds across Alastari.



Scars fade, wounds heal but glory lasts forever!


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Den
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:40 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I have two things in common with Madwand....I sent in 38 warriors and I have a bad haircut.

I have low expectations, a third of my send is arena warriors for the experience so I can continue my unchecked dominance in the arenas I fight and the others are what was timed and in the front of the drawer. If I get three TV's, I'll be pleased.

I should have been flying home today from Tempe, this virus crap needs to end.

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gentleben
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2021 4:03 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Den wrote:
I have two things in common with Madwand....I sent in 38 warriors and I have a bad haircut.

I have low expectations, a third of my send is arena warriors for the experience so I can continue my unchecked dominance in the arenas I fight and the others are what was timed and in the front of the drawer. If I get three TV's, I'll be pleased.

I should have been flying home today from Tempe, this virus crap needs to end.


You keep using that word "dominance", I do nit think it means what you think it means, the only thing "unchecked" in your arenas are your fights, you obviously aren't reading them or you don't understand them, the only thing you dominate is the oxygen intake as you talk on and on about made up crap you wish was real.

I will agree that the virus needs to stop even more than your spewing of crap in the D2 world needs to stop.

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Gentleben
Ben's Bazaar-21
Caress of Steel-28
Secret Squirrels-32
He Be GBs-33
Time Stallyans-45
Pawn of Prophecy-47
Primal Instinct-81
Misfit Managers-1,2,3,4,18,25,29
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Managerr
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2021 4:05 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I had a longer write up but it never showed up so you get the short version:

The last time we had a Mail-In in January was 1996. The Superbowl was being held in Tempe and hotel rooms were hundreds of dollars a night more thanusual. So RSI flipped the Winter FtF and the Spring Mail-In. Therefore, the TC winners of this tourney will add their names to a very small list as TC winners of a Winter Mail-In. Combine that with one of the more sought after prizes and you're looking at a very competitive tourney.

Primus
-------
We've had two tourneys in a row where the TMM has come within one fight of losing the Primus tourney. He's still dominating the awards scene, although twice, different warriors have gone pretty deep. Is this the tourney someone new finally breaks through? This is probably the most drama we've had in the Primus tourney in awhile. I wouldn't be surprised with a TMM sweep nor would I be surprised with someone else breaking through.

TC: Frankenberry R-Up: Bob, Eternal Sleeper: Samurai

Contenders:
-----------
One of the perennial favorites finally won the last time, and this means that the field is probably wider open than ever. Or is it? Word on the street is that there could be people who have saved a few things for this very special prize. But we'll see what happens!

TC: TMM R-Up: Khisanth Sleeper: Floyd

Eligibles:
-----------
One class where there is a heavy favorite featuring a well known AB who is busting out. We had some unlikely Eligibles emerge last time though, we'll see if this one goes in line with expectations. Because of the prize, I don't think anyone will concede to TUM, whereas with a not-as-strong prize, you might have a few managers willing to bide their time.

TC: TUM R-Up: Howling Wolf Sleeper: Floyd

ADM:
----
It's a good prize and I've already seen 3423234 Double-21 bustouts for this class. I've seen so many that they are all prety much running together--and not standing out from the crowd. It's cliche, but because there are so many bustouts, you will have to both train well and have runnable favorites. Their are also a growing number of tweaked out physical parked warriors as well.

TC: HW R-Up: Floyd Sleeper: Mgr

Freshmen:
---------
Everyone got all excited when it initially appeared the Challenger Suck Offs were all rated Freshmen, but corrections from RSI quickly dulled that initial "Wow, I have a crazy Freshmen" comments on their overview. Their could still be some nutty chicanery going on because of the Dead Challengers that Resurrected post freeze, but I don't think there were many that went for it judging from the newsletter.

TC: OAB R-Up:HW Sleeper: Hombre

Challengers:
------------
Between a very big Challenger Suck Off, and a potential big slew of Challengers returning from the Dead, this one is pretty much a crap shoot. There could totally be a maxxed or close to maxxed warriors out there lurking in the field. Wouldn't be surprised to see a shocker. I could easily have picked a good 10 managers to do well in this class. Could be anybody.

TC: HW R-Up: Khisanth Sleeper: DMobster

Champs:
--------
Everyone seems to be sandbagging this class with no obvious favorites and no one willing to talk up any of their contenders. It seems hard to believe with this prize on the line, but this could be anyone's class for the taking.

TC: DMobster R-Up: OAB Sleeper: Paradox

Adepts:
-------
I know what's out there but I refuse to pick a Basher or Frail AB as the TC winner. The successful Rainbows are going to be in this classas well, here's where we could see some of the LU and AB start to show what they have too.

TC: HW R-Up: Destitute Noble Sleeper: Floyd
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Vladimer
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2021 7:02 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

In Duelmasters, D is for….

Desultory – Without a doubt this is as far removed as I have ever been in terms of tourney prep, team selection or enthusiasm with the process. If someone had a pulse and was timed, pretty much in they went. I suspect my results will validate that.

Detachment or Drained (Dealer’s choice) – There’s a thing in my business referred to as “fee fatigue”. Despite whatever good work you may be doing, over time the client begins to be more and more tired of seeing you as your total fees go up and up. Maybe it’s mailer fatigue from the four mailers in a row or maybe it is the fact that this is the shortest prep time of any tourney. Or maybe the mail being haywire and making the process that much more difficult. Or maybe competing at the level I’d prefer to feels more like work. Or maybe I really just didn’t have that much this go round.

Data point – I am always fascinated by OAB’s insights and have once again fixated on what his 3/5th chance to TC means. Did he add up all his TCs and divide by all his tourneys? Or TCs divided by warriors entered? Just the mailers? Just January tourneys? Just this past year or two years? Just where he is busting someone who likes a little pointy stick? Much like the data points I throw to the wolves in Chatzy, it just seems, well, fraught with opportunity for misconception. But it made me want to look, so I did. Overall, I appear to have just over a 30% chance to TC. If we just look at the last three years that chance climbs to 47%. If you look at mailers, it falls to 33%. If you look at Winter tourneys it is steady at zero, count ‘em, 0%. Either way, the data points don’t really work for me. To be very clear, I’m still at that point where I feel each TC is luck, luck, luck and figure on maybe a 5% chance in any given tourney based on no data points at all except my gut, which is prodigious enough to be taken seriously.

Distribution Disparity – My crew was broken down as follows, ADM to Rooks: 1-2-4-3-4-6-16-62. By style, alphabetically: 23-8-15-1-3-1-16-13-6-12

al dente – Speaking of rooks, I decided to throw the pasta at the wall and see what sticks. Sadly, BoV has not let me try this at home to date. The paucity of decent folks in the higher classes as well as the lack of travel expense for a FTF, combined with the general malaise, resulted in a plan, if it can be dignified as such, to run whatever rooks looked ok and see what stuck. Various contests and the stylemaster prize contributed to the pile. Hoping for a few that wind up al dente.

Delta – The excitement for the prep was hearing from Green Eyes late yesterday evening that she had a count for my warriors that differed from what I submitted. Due to USPS woes, I had faxed everyone in over several days and so not too surprising a few got lost. Wouldn’t surprise me if one of those, which I was able to identify and send over to her, winds up being the last entered before the tourney kicked off.

Details – Without doubt, my two strongest classes are champs and adepts:

Champs:

JALAPENO BUSINESS is an 11-10-5-21-21-5-11 LU with 20 learns in DEF and INI and 19 in ATT. 152 total skills with a pretty nice distribution. Been to the 12th and 14th rounds in past tournies but never got to the big dance.

ONE BIG COCCYX is someone that reminds of RHO TELESCOPII, but without the success. He, too, has learned 20 decise and 18 ATT but the rest of his learns are split between Riposte (MAS) and INI (Adex). At 17-10-4-21-9-10-13, he can take a hit so perhaps the riposte will come in handy.

Adepts:

MIGUEL is my obvious fave here. That said, to me adepts is a class fraught with Strikers and I don’t think I see the big blue ape running that gauntlet of 30+ decise warriors. Too many will get the jump and those post-decise-battle crits will probably make short work of him, despite his dance moves. Of course, if he does get the chance to swing….

Apprentices:

I doubt he’ll do well but I am looking forward to seeing the fights for my SL who is ADEX DEC / INI and EX ATT. But this seems like a WS class and he will stumble with defensives.

Doubters -- “I refuse to pick a BA”. This cracked me up. Thanks, Mgrr!

Denouement – One way or another, this is already in the books and the fat lady has sung, even if we can’t hear the tune quite yet. I look forward to a leisurely weekend read starting in a few days and wish you all the same.
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Den
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2021 7:32 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

crybaby ben wrote:
Den wrote:
I have two things in common with Madwand....I sent in 38 warriors and I have a bad haircut.

I have low expectations, a third of my send is arena warriors for the experience so I can continue my unchecked dominance in the arenas I fight and the others are what was timed and in the front of the drawer. If I get three TV's, I'll be pleased.

I should have been flying home today from Tempe, this virus crap needs to end.


You keep using that word "dominance", I do nit think it means what you think it means, the only thing "unchecked" in your arenas are your fights, you obviously aren't reading them or you don't understand them, the only thing you dominate is the oxygen intake as you talk on and on about made up crap you wish was real.

I will agree that the virus needs to stop even more than your spewing of crap in the D2 world needs to stop.


Invest in a sense of humor you freaking crybaby.

_________________
Disclaimer. The above ad was probably written without malice and likely meant in jest. If you were offended, please understand being offended is a choice that YOU make and has little to do with my comment. Some look for reasons to be offended, some don't.
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gentleben
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2021 7:44 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Den wrote:
crybaby ben wrote:
Den wrote:
I have two things in common with Madwand....I sent in 38 warriors and I have a bad haircut.

I have low expectations, a third of my send is arena warriors for the experience so I can continue my unchecked dominance in the arenas I fight and the others are what was timed and in the front of the drawer. If I get three TV's, I'll be pleased.

I should have been flying home today from Tempe, this virus crap needs to end.


You keep using that word "dominance", I do nit think it means what you think it means, the only thing "unchecked" in your arenas are your fights, you obviously aren't reading them or you don't understand them, the only thing you dominate is the oxygen intake as you talk on and on about made up crap you wish was real.

I will agree that the virus needs to stop even more than your spewing of crap in the D2 world needs to stop.


Invest in a sense of humor you freaking crybaby.


That the best ya got kiddo?

_________________
Gentleben
Ben's Bazaar-21
Caress of Steel-28
Secret Squirrels-32
He Be GBs-33
Time Stallyans-45
Pawn of Prophecy-47
Primal Instinct-81
Misfit Managers-1,2,3,4,18,25,29
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gentleben
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2021 8:00 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Den wrote:
crybaby ben wrote:
Den wrote:
I have two things in common with Madwand....I sent in 38 warriors and I have a bad haircut.

I have low expectations, a third of my send is arena warriors for the experience so I can continue my unchecked dominance in the arenas I fight and the others are what was timed and in the front of the drawer. If I get three TV's, I'll be pleased.

I should have been flying home today from Tempe, this virus crap needs to end.


You keep using that word "dominance", I do nit think it means what you think it means, the only thing "unchecked" in your arenas are your fights, you obviously aren't reading them or you don't understand them, the only thing you dominate is the oxygen intake as you talk on and on about made up crap you wish was real.

I will agree that the virus needs to stop even more than your spewing of crap in the D2 world needs to stop.


Invest in a sense of humor you freaking crybaby.


FYI, Army Geddon says the only thing you have ever created is your own false reality, and that you wouldn't know what or who the Army would or would not let in as you haven't the courage nor honor to serve

_________________
Gentleben
Ben's Bazaar-21
Caress of Steel-28
Secret Squirrels-32
He Be GBs-33
Time Stallyans-45
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Primal Instinct-81
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