DUEL 2 NEWSLETTER
Date : 01/10/2013 Duedate: 01/23/2013
ZUWAYZA ARENA
DM-19 TURN-704
This Weeks Top Honors
THE DUELMASTER IS
SIR BLUEBELL
LORDS INC. (324)
(19-3642) [20-7-0,104]
Chartered Recognition Leader Unchartered Recognition Leader
SIR BLUEBELL POSITION IS EMPTY
LORDS INC. (324)
(19-3642) [20-7-0,104]
Popularity Leader This Weeks Favorite
LADY LILA LADY LILA
LORDS INC. (324) LORDS INC. (324)
(19-3735) [11-4-1,93] (19-3735) [11-4-1,93]
THE CURRENT TOP TEAM
LORDS INC. (324)
TEAMS ON THE MOVE TOP CAREER HONORS
Team Name Point Gain Chartered Team
1. THE MOTHERSHIP CC (451) 26
2. THE MAGNIFICENT MAGS (241) 20 MAN OR BEAST? (432)
3. LORDS INC. (324) 19 Unchartered Team
4. MAN OR BEAST? (432) 2
5. BASH BRO HOUSEMATE (414) 0HOUSE FROTHINGSLOSH (173)
The Top Teams
Career Win-Loss Record W L K % Win-Loss Record Last 3 Turns W L K
1/ 1 MAN OR BEAST? (432) 103 47 6 68.7 1/ 3 LORDS INC. (324) 7 1 0
2/ 2 THE MOTHERSHIP CC (451) 34 18 3 65.4 2/ 2 THE MAGNIFICENT MA (241) 7 8 1
3- 3 BASH BRO HOUSEMATE (414) 67 45 1 59.8 3/ 1 THE MOTHERSHIP CC (451) 6 4 0
4/ 0 PARKS AND REC (456) 25 22 3 53.2 4/ 0 PARKS AND REC (456) 5 7 0
5- 4 JESSIE'S SPUDS (449) 29 27 3 51.8 5/ 5 VISIONS V2 (452) 3 7 0
6/ 5 VISIONS V2 (452) 34 40 5 45.9 6/ 4 MAN OR BEAST? (432) 2 1 0
7/ 6 THE MAGNIFICENT MA (241) 722 860 22 45.6 7- 6*BLADES OF ICE (439) 1 0 0
8/ 7 LORDS INC. (324) 55 69 4 44.4 8- 8 JESSIE'S SPUDS (449) 1 1 0
9- 8*BLADES OF ICE (439) 2 4 0 33.3 9- 7 BASH BRO HOUSEMATE (414) 0 1 0
'*' Unchartered team '-' Team did not fight this turn
(###) Avoid teams by their Team Id ##/## This turn's/Last turn's rank
TEAM SPOTLIGHT
* }%|[-----+O+-----]|%{ * }%|[-----+O+-----]|%{ * }%|[-----+O+-----]|%{ *
---===FREE BLADES REGIONAL NEWS===---
Duelmasters
-----------
DM 9 ZUKAL (turn 713): GLINDORA of CRIMSON DEATH (Verol, mgr.)
DM 12 RIZTAB (turn 715): DIZZY GILLESPIE of BLUE NOTE (Howlin' Wolf, mgr.)
DM 13 DULLENS (turn 660): THE BEAKSTER of ARCANE ROYALTY (Destitute Noble, mgr.)
DM 15 MALCORN (turn 709): LUCK DEVIL of THE DEVIL'S OWN (The Dark One, mgr.)
DM 16 WILLAF (turn 711): DEE NILE of PUNNY AMINALS (Jorja, mgr.)
DM 17 ALJAFIR (turn 702): WHIRLING FROGGY of KAOS FROGS (Grimm, mgr.)
DM 19 ZUWAYZA (turn 703): SIR BLUEBELL of LORDS INC. (Lord Z., mgr.)
DM 28 MORYA (turn 354): POSTAGE of EXPENSE ACCOUNT (Finance Manager, mgr.)
DM 29 LAPUR (turn 700): GRASSFIRE of CARDOW HUNTERS (Jorja, mgr.)
DM 31 CHIMLEVTAL (turn 351): DRONE-ON of BAD NEWS BEES (Stinger, mgr.)
DM 32 ARVAT (turn 697): PAM DEMONIUM of DEVIL ADVOCATES (The Dark One, mgr.)
DM 33 NIATOLI ISLAND (turn 694): HULL SCRUBBER of SEA DOGS (One Armed Bandit, mgr.)
DM 35 MURSKA (turn 686): GRINCY of BAD GUYS (Mr. Bad Guy, mgr.)
DM 43 VEASTIAN (turn 644): ARCHERS OF LOAF of UNC COLLEGE RADIO (Floyd, mgr.)
DM 45 STORMCROWE (turn 329): AURORA MARIE of NORTHERN LIGHTS (Jorja, mgr.)
DM 47 NORTH FORK (turn 323): FROSTY of FAST FOOD (Madwand, mgr.)
DM 50 SNOWBOUND (turn 310): 4-H of LIFE IMPACTS (Coach, mgr.)
DM 56 ROCANIS (turn 576): LINKIN LOGGER of INCONSISTENT FURY (Banthius, mgr.)
DM 60 ARADI (turn 561): TICK ... TOCK of UNNAMEABLES (Howlin' Wolf, mgr.)
DM 61 JURINE (turn 543): GRAHAM CRACKER of SHEWISH BUFFET (One Armed Bandit, mgr.)
DM 65 DAL SHANG (turn 537): LINDIS TYL SARRO of SAND DANCERS (Jorja, mgr.)
DM 73 ERINIKA (turn 259): FRISBEE of FOUND IN THE SAND (Assurnasirbanipal, mgr.)
DM 74 DAYLA KIV (turn 498): SPIDERPIG of HOMER'S PETS (Floyd, mgr.)
DM 75 JADE MOUNTAIN (turn 493): KOGAN DJIAN of SAND DANCERS (Jorja, mgr)
DM 78 LIN TIRIAN (turn 484): NAKED LUNCH of SHEWISH BUFFET (One Armed Bandit, mgr.)
ADM 103 FREE BLADES (turn 601): NOREASTER of DIRT DEVILS (The Dark One, mgr.)
Top Teams
---------
DM 9 ZUKAL (turn 713): CRIMSON DEATH (Verol, mgr.)
DM 12 RIZTAB (turn 715): BLUE NOTE (Howlin' Wolf, mgr.)
DM 13 DULLENS (turn 660): ARCANE ROYALTY (Destitute Noble, mgr.)
DM 15 MALCORN (turn 709): CRUCIAL TAUNT (Daikkan, mgr.)
DM 16 WILLAF (turn 711): PUNNY AMINALS (Jorja, mgr.)
DM 17 ALJAFIR (turn 702): MIDDLE WAY (Jorja, mgr.)
DM 19 ZUWAYZA (turn 703): THE MAGNIFICENT MAGS (Jorja, mgr.)
DM 28 MORYA (turn 354): LORD OF DISCIPLINE (Longshot, mgr.)
DM 29 LAPUR (turn 700): METAL MINCERS (Oremaster, mgr.)
DM 31 CHIMLEVTAL (turn 351): POSITION IS EMPTY
DM 32 ARVAT (turn 697): DEATH BY DESIGN (Bubba Ganoosh, mgr.)
DM 33 NIATOLI ISLAND (turn 694): SEA DOGS (One Armed Bandit, mgr.)
DM 35 MURSKA (turn 686): HAPPY FUN TIME (Floyd, mgr.)
DM 43 VEASTIAN (turn 644): THE FAMILY (Jorja, mgr.)
DM 45 STORMCROWE (turn 329): DARQUE FORCES (Master Darque, mgr.)
DM 47 NORTH FORK (turn 323): FAST FOOD (Madwand, mgr.)
DM 50 SNOWBOUND (turn 310): LIFE IMAPACTS (Coach, mgr.)
DM 56 ROCANIS (turn 576): INCONSISTENT FURY (Banthius, mgr.)
DM 60 ARADI (turn 561): RED DOG GANG (Spot, mgr.)
DM 61 JURINE (turn 543): SHEWISH BUFFET (One Armed Bandit, mgr.)
DM 65 DAL SHANG (turn 537): SAND DANCERS (Jorja, mgr.)
DM 73 ERINIKA (turn 259): SUPER STARS (Crip, mgr.)
DM 74 DAYLA KIV (turn 498): MEDAL OF HONOR (The Anarchist, mgr.)
DM 75 JADE MOUNTAIN (turn 493): SAND DANCERSS (Floyd, mgr.)
DM 78 LIN TIRIAN (turn 484): SAND DANCERS (Jorja, mgr.)
ADM 103 FREE BLADES (turn 601): DIRT DEVILS et al (The Dark One, mgr.)
Recent Graduates
-----------------
DM 9 ZUKAL (turn 713): BLUE STREAK of BLUE MOON (Jorja, mgr.)
DM 12 RIZTAB (turn 715): DIZZY GILLESPIE of BLUE NOTE (Howlin' Wolf, mgr.)
DM 13 DULLENS (turn 660): THE BEAKSTER of ARCANE ROYALTY (Destitute Noble, mgr.)
DM 16 WILLAF (turn 711): DEE NILE of PUNNY AMINALS (Jorja, mgr.)
DM 29 LAPUR (turn 700): GRASSFIRE of CARDOW HUNTERS (Jorja, mgr.)
MOTHIAS of MID EARTH (Visionist, mgr.)
DM 31 CHIMLEVTAL (turn 350): BUMBLE of BAD NEWS BEES (Stinger, mgr.)
XANDAR of AVENGERS (Huckle Cat?, mgr.)
DM 32 ARVAT (turn 697): INSIDIOUS of DEATH BY DESIGN (Bubba Ganoosh, mgr.)
DM 47 NORTH FORK (turn 323): FROSTY of FAST FOOD (Madwand, mgr.)
(turn 322): WILHELM SCREAM of OTTODROME TW (Otto X, mgr.)
DM 50 SNOWBOUND (turn 310): MATH of LIFE IMPACTS (Coach, mgr.)
DM 60 ARADI (turn 560): FENWRIST of RED DOG GANG (Spot, mgr.)
PRIME MINISTER of INGRATE WHITE NORTH (Crip, mgr.)
DM 74 DAYLA KIV (turn 498): SPIDERPIG of HOMER'S PETS (Floyd, mgr.)
DM 78 LIN TIRIAN (turn 484): NAKED LUNCH of SHEWISH BUFFET (One Armed Bandit, mgr.)
DUELMASTER'S COLUMN
Notes from the arena champ.
Gone 10 years. Come back to check on things and y'all immediately crown me
Duelmaster. Oh how the Zuwayzans have fallen. Guess I'll have ta whip y'all back to
respectability.
It is lonely at the top. Here's to solitude!
Sir Bluebell
SPY REPORT
Hail and well met warriors of ZUWAYZA! Know me for who I am, Zontani Sharp
Eyes, Spymaster extraordinaire of all Alastari. Former top team THE MOTHERSHIP CC
was unseated this week as LORDS INC. moved up from 3rd ranking to take the top spot
with a 3-1-0 record for the round. BROKEN HALO caught the eye of many in the
gladiatorial commission as it skillfully bested AVERAGE JOE and was awarded 11 points
in recognition. In one of the week's more notable duels, BROKEN HALO put down
AVERAGE JOE, causing him to lose 8 points of recognition in the process. Although
GRAVITRON made a valiant effort, it did not suffice to topple the reign of victorious
SIR BLUEBELL. Heed this! A seer has warned that if exactly 6 die in duels this
week, the whole city shall perish! Just remember...5 or 7!
But come now, let us look deeper into the maze of contention and crossed blades
that is city ZUWAYZA. ZUWAYZA, city of gladiators! Mighty among the names of thy
guilds is JESSIE'S SPUDS, a guild shunned and avoided by many in the weekly duels.
If you didn't look down dark alleys you'd have been hard pressed to find any of MAN
OR BEAST? last week. Busy avoiding JESSIE'S SPUDS? Mighty fighters cannot but
expect competition from those below. SIR SMASH take warning! You have more than a
few enemies in ZUWAYZA. A match that raised a few eyebrows at the games this week,
it seems that WALTER PIDGEON posted a challenge against the more highly recognized
LADY LILA. The results, you ask? Well, the firebrand WALTER PIDGEON lost to LADY
LILA. Remember warriors, this is the discipline of steel.
Is not Death a warrior's foremost adviser? Warriors, may this counselor stand
ready at your right hand forever! Fate is a fickle mistress. She showers the
miserable with fortune but sets enemies against the victorious. Remember this!
If it were not for my skills as a spy I would have been mugged three times
already in ZUWAYZA. Nice atmosphere you have here! More than a sharp eye must I
keep, indeed a stout pair of legs must I keep as well! The endless paths of Alastari
await me! Till next we meet remember: a fool flies into a rage quickly and often.
The wise are angered by the same thing only once. Zontani Sharp Eyes
DUELMASTER W L K POINTS TEAM NAME
SIR BLUEBELL 3642 20 7 0 104 LORDS INC. (324)
CHALLENGER CHAMPIONS W L K POINTS TEAM NAME
-BEAR GRYLLS 5185 12 2 0 127 MAN OR BEAST? (432)
-BULL HALSEY 5329 12 1 2 122 MAN OR BEAST? (432)
LADY LILA 3735 11 4 1 93 LORDS INC. (324)
LEAPING LILAC 5427 9 2 0 91 PARKS AND REC (456)
-SHARK NORMAN 5397 8 2 1 91 MAN OR BEAST? (432)
CHAMPIONS W L K POINTS TEAM NAME
GRAVITRON 5369 9 2 1 90 THE MOTHERSHIP CC (451)
POCKET NEWS 5364 11 10 0 85 THE MAGNIFICENT MAGS (241)
GARRET 5375 9 6 0 69 VISIONS V2 (452)
CHALLENGER ADEPTS W L K POINTS TEAM NAME
-TAMBONE 5347 12 10 1 66 JESSIE'S SPUDS (449)
WALTER PIDGEON 5302 11 3 0 66 MAN OR BEAST? (432)
BROKEN HALO 5382 6 2 1 64 THE MOTHERSHIP CC (451)
ADEPTS W L K POINTS TEAM NAME
PORK CHOP GOLEM 5368 7 3 1 56 THE MOTHERSHIP CC (451)
SIR SMASH 3734 8 7 1 51 LORDS INC. (324)
HUGS-N-KISSES 5367 7 3 0 45 THE MOTHERSHIP CC (451)
AVERAGE JOE 5426 7 4 3 42 PARKS AND REC (456)
YOGA PANTS 5395 5 2 0 40 THE MOTHERSHIP CC (451)
-DIAMOND 5381 6 4 2 39 JESSIE'S SPUDS (449)
TELBIN 5403 5 5 3 38 VISIONS V2 (452)
CHALLENGER INITIATES W L K POINTS TEAM NAME
-BLADE 5234 2 0 0 29 BLADES OF ICE (439)
PAXTON 5404 4 6 1 27 VISIONS V2 (452)
MODERN PHRENOLOGY 5408 4 2 0 25 THE MAGNIFICENT MAGS (241)
LADY LOVELACE 3738 4 9 0 25 LORDS INC. (324)
INITIATES W L K POINTS TEAM NAME
NEUTER NELL 5428 5 6 0 21 PARKS AND REC (456)
HOUSE BEAUTIFUL 5410 4 1 0 18 THE MAGNIFICENT MAGS (241)
DOTTLE 5424 2 0 0 18 VISIONS V2 (452)
THE DUELIST 5422 3 1 1 16 THE MAGNIFICENT MAGS (241)
QUICK HIT HARRY 5425 2 9 0 15 PARKS AND REC (456)
-POPEYE 5405 1 0 0 15 JESSIE'S SPUDS (449)
-HAMBONE 5346 4 1 0 14 JESSIE'S SPUDS (449)
TRUE CRIME 5411 2 3 0 9 THE MAGNIFICENT MAGS (241)
-SLAYER 5235 0 1 0 7 BLADES OF ICE (439)
'-' denotes a warrior who did not fight this turn.
THE DEAD W L K TEAM NAME SLAIN BY TURN Revenge?
ALCHEMIST'S MONT 5351 5 15 0 THE MAGNIFICENT 241 TELBIN 5403 700 NOT REVENGED
EYBEE SKREWD 5419 1 2 0 VISIONS V2 452 THE DUELIST 5422 704
PERSONAL ADS
Hot Flash! The Face-to-Face Tourney will be in the 18th, 19th, and 20th of this
month. Get your strategies in by the 17th, please and thank you.
Pocket News -- Was a pleasure watching you work. -- Sir Bluebell
Sir Smash go BOOM! Next! -- Sir Smash
Lady Lila lazilly lambastes Loaded Tuber -- Lady Lila
Lady Lovelace loathes Lumpy Literature. -- Lady Lovelace
Orcs Plant Flowers! Crown of Bluebells! Observers Are Stunned! Inside Story on
page 3! -- Pocket News
Lady Lovelace -- My word! Not all your bumps are on your head, and the, ah,
displaced ones are amazing! -- Modern Phrenology
Blade -- You aren't supposed to do that! Blade and Blood is a low-class periodical,
not like ME. -- The Duelist, high-toned throughout
Eyebee Skrewd -- Not in MY house, you won't! -- House Beautiful
Dottle -- That's a crime, right there! Littering! -- True Crime
LAST WEEK'S FIGHTS
WALTER PIDGEON was viciously subdued by LADY LILA in a 8 minute Challenge fight.
TELBIN was subdued by SIR SMASH in a 2 minute Challenge melee.
SIR BLUEBELL luckily beat GRAVITRON in a action packed 5 minute bloody Title fight.
POCKET NEWS bested GARRET in a 2 minute fight.
LEAPING LILAC overpowered PORK CHOP GOLEM in a 1 minute mismatched match.
BROKEN HALO devastated AVERAGE JOE in a 1 minute one-sided duel.
YOGA PANTS viciously subdued LADY LOVELACE in a crowd pleasing 3 minute bloody match.
HUGS-N-KISSES overpowered HOUSE BEAUTIFUL in a 1 minute uneven melee.
QUICK HIT HARRY was vanquished by MODERN PHRENOLOGY in a 1 minute uneven duel.
PAXTON savagely defeated NEUTER NELL in a 2 minute gruesome duel.
TRUE CRIME was defeated by DOTTLE in a 3 minute novice's fight.
EYBEE SKREWD was viciously butchered by THE DUELIST in a 2 minute novice's bout.
BATTLE REPORT
MOST POPULAR RECORD DURING THE LAST 10 TURNS
|FIGHTING STYLE FIGHTS FIGHTING STYLE W - L - K PERCENT|
|AIMED BLOW 6 PARRY-STRIKE 2 - 0 - 0 100 |
|STRIKING ATTACK 4 LUNGING ATTACK 25 - 12 - 5 68 |
|TOTAL PARRY 4 TOTAL PARRY 13 - 8 - 0 62 |
|LUNGING ATTACK 4 BASHING ATTACK 9 - 7 - 0 56 |
|PARRY-RIPOSTE 2 AIMED BLOW 26 - 22 - 1 54 |
|PARRY-STRIKE 1 STRIKING ATTACK 14 - 13 - 2 52 |
|SLASHING ATTACK 1 SLASHING ATTACK 4 - 5 - 1 44 |
|BASHING ATTACK 1 WALL OF STEEL 4 - 7 - 0 36 |
|WALL OF STEEL 1 PARRY-LUNGE 2 - 5 - 0 29 |
|PARRY-LUNGE 0 PARRY-RIPOSTE 2 - 6 - 0 25 |
Turn 704 was great if you Not so great if you used The fighting styles of the
used the fighting styles: the fighting styles: top eleven warriors are:
PARRY-STRIKE 1 - 0 AIMED BLOW 2 - 4 3 LUNGING ATTACK
SLASHING ATTACK 1 - 0 LUNGING ATTACK 1 - 3 2 TOTAL PARRY
BASHING ATTACK 1 - 0 PARRY-LUNGE 0 - 0 2 AIMED BLOW
WALL OF STEEL 1 - 0 PARRY-RIPOSTE 0 - 2 1 PARRY-LUNGE
STRIKING ATTACK 3 - 1 1 SLASHING ATTACK
TOTAL PARRY 2 - 2 1 PARRY-STRIKE
1 WALL OF STEEL
TOP WARRIOR OF EACH STYLE
FIGHTING STYLE WARRIOR W L K PNTS TEAM NAME
TOTAL PARRY SIR BLUEBELL 3642 20 7 0 104 LORDS INC. (324)
FIGHTING STYLE WARRIOR W L K PNTS TEAM NAME
PARRY-STRIKE LADY LILA 3735 11 4 1 93 LORDS INC. (324)
LUNGING ATTACK LEAPING LILAC 5427 9 2 0 91 PARKS AND REC (456)
WALL OF STEEL POCKET NEWS 5364 11 10 0 85 THE MAGNIFICENT MAGS (241)
AIMED BLOW GARRET 5375 9 6 0 69 VISIONS V2 (452)
STRIKING ATTACK BROKEN HALO 5382 6 2 1 64 THE MOTHERSHIP CC (451)
Note: Warriors have a winning record and are an Adept or Above.
The overall popularity leader is LADY LILA 3735. The most popular warrior this turn
was LADY LILA 3735. The ten other most popular fighters were GRAVITRON 5369, YOGA
PANTS 5395, TRUE CRIME 5411, WALTER PIDGEON 5302, PAXTON 5404, SIR SMASH 3734, POCKET
NEWS 5364, GARRET 5375, HUGS-N-KISSES 5367, and THE DUELIST 5422.
The least popular fighter this week was EYBEE SKREWD 5419. The other ten least
popular fighters were NEUTER NELL 5428, QUICK HIT HARRY 5425, HOUSE BEAUTIFUL 5410,
AVERAGE JOE 5426, PORK CHOP GOLEM 5368, SIR BLUEBELL 3642, DOTTLE 5424, MODERN
PHRENOLOGY 5408, LADY LOVELACE 3738, and BROKEN HALO 5382.
AVOIDS, BLOODFEUDS, & CHALLENGES
by Pagan
Ever wonder how the whole challenge/avoid thing works?
Who you fight depends on exactly how it works. We will never know exactly how it
works unless we can get a look at the coding for the program, but this is how I think
it works:
The Situation:
The system allows a warrior to make two separate challenges and two distinct
avoids.
Avoids are distinct in that they MUST indicate a specific team to be avoided, so
a "double avoid" indicates a single team twice, which by default means you are
avoiding one team. In this case, the second avoid is a duplicate and therefore a
waste of an avoid.
Challenges are to specific warriors. You have a first challenge, and then you
have a second challenge.
The Process:
First the computer removes all Dark Arena challengers from the list of available
warriors.
Second, the computer checks for WHO fights WHO by going though all TVs and
bloodfeuds, which are 100% sure to go through except in four instances:
1. the warrior challenged does not fight,
2. the warrior challenged is also making a bloodfeud or TV challenge and that
challenge has already been assigned,
3. the warrior has already been assigned to a Dark Arena fight,
4. that warrior has declared your team to be one of his warrior's avoids,
reducing your challenge to 50%.
Third, the computer assesses all the regular first-challenge warriors and assigns
fights. All other challenges are at 100% chance of success except in a few instances:
warrior challenged is going to the DA, warrior challenged is involved in a previously
assigned challenge, warrior challenged is not running this turn, or warrior challenged
has avoided your team at 50% chance to avoid.
Fourth, the computer assesses and assigns all secondary challenges of warriors
not so far assigned for bloodfeuds and TVs.
Fifth, the computer assesses and assigns all the regular second challenges.
Sixth, the computer assigns random matchups in each available class starting with
the highest class first.
Seventh, the computer finds the remaining warriors that have successfully avoided
all first and second challenges and/or who also did not get randomly assigned, AND for
whom no more available warriors remain in their class for random pairing. All of
these warriors get RSI-generated warriors to fight based on their class.
So, if I'm right and avoids reduce the chance for a challenge to 50%, then:
In the absence of an avoid
single challenge = 100% success
double challenge = 100% success, then an additional 100% success
Where an avoid is involved
single challenge vs avoid = 50% success
double challenge vs avoid = 75% (chance to avoid is 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.25; 1 -
0.25 = 75% chance to succeed
Bloodfeuds and TVs may increase the percentage chance of success above 100%, or
they may not. I feel that their increased ability to get through is based solely on
the way the computer assigns challenges. They are first, so they are most likely to
go through. The 100% chance for a challenge to succeed is 100% if it's a TV bloodfeud
and you are the first one to get assigned a fight that day because you are also the
Duelmaster. But after that the chances start to diminish rapidly.
The run-through for second challenges theoretically means your challenge should
be 100% but it's not the case if you are the LAST guy the computer goes to for finding
challenges.
If you don't double challenge, you significantly lower your chance to get your
challenge through. The second challenge is not equal to the first challenge.
Pagan