DUEL 2 NEWSLETTER

Date   : 10/04/2013    Duedate: 10/17/2013

ZENSU ARENA

DM-40    TURN-679

This Weeks Top Honors

THE DUELMASTER IS

JACKAL
RANDOM (458)
(40-4508) [6-4-0,70]

Chartered Recognition Leader   Unchartered Recognition Leader

JACKAL                         POSITION IS EMPTY
RANDOM (458)                   
(40-4508) [6-4-0,70]           

Popularity Leader              This Weeks Favorite

KORVIN ROSS                    JACKAL
BEYOND THE PALE (337)          RANDOM (458)
(40-4456) [10-24-0,54]         (40-4508) [6-4-0,70]

THE CURRENT TOP TEAM

RANDOM (458)

          TEAMS ON THE MOVE            TOP CAREER HONORS
Team Name                  Point Gain  Chartered Team
1. RANDOM (458)                 9
2. BEYOND THE PALE (337)        9      MEDAL OF HONOR Z1 (441)
3. OBSCURE DEMONS (463)         0      Unchartered Team
4. MEDAL OF HONOR Z1 (441)     -1
ANIMATED DESTRUCTION (265)

The Top Teams

Career Win-Loss Record           W   L  K    %  Win-Loss Record Last 3 Turns    W  L K
 1- 1*OBSCURE DEMONS (463)       1   0  0  100   1/ 1 RANDOM (458)              7  2 0
 2/ 2 MEDAL OF HONOR Z1 (441)   26  25  6 51.0   2/ 2 BEYOND THE PALE (337)     6  9 0
 3/ 3 RANDOM (458)              37  37  0 50.0   3/ 3 MEDAL OF HONOR Z1 (441)   3  2 1
 4/ 4 BEYOND THE PALE (337)    914 %1034 32 46.9   4- 4*OBSCURE DEMONS (463)      1  0 0

    '*'   Unchartered team                       '-'  Team did not fight this turn
   (###)  Avoid teams by their Team Id          ##/## This turn's/Last turn's rank

                                    TEAM SPOTLIGHT

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                          ---===ANDORIAN REGIONAL NEWS===---

                                     Duelmasters
                                     -----------
 DM   8 ARKERS (turn 366): YOSEMITE of SMITHSONIAN (Curator, mgr.)
 DM  11 ARUAK CITY (turn 733): HONEY BOO BOO of REALITY TV (Mannequin, mgr.)
 DM  14 TOBIR (turn 733): MAN MOUNTAIN of THE DEATH SQUAD (Street Legal, mgr.)
 DM  22 SOLVEN (turn 718): CROSSTOWN TRAFFIC of ARE YOU ? (Howlin' Wolf, mgr.)
 DM  24 ZORPUNT (turn 720): POGO POLEN of KRILL CAVALRY (Jorja, mgr.)
 DM  25 LYRATILAN (turn 717): DMX of SAY MY NAME (Howlin' Wolf, mgr.)
 DM  26 CALEAM (turn 714): SHIV of SERPENTS HOLD (Khisanth, mgr.)
 DM  30 IAYE (turn 715): JAZMO of SERPENTS HOLD (Khisanth, mgr.)
 DM  40 ZENSU (turn 678): SOLDIER 1 of MEDAL OF HONOR Z1 (The Anarchist, mgr.)
 DM  41 KATI-TEI (turn 675): 21STCENTURY SKITZOID of DA DOG POWNDAZ (Marma Duke, mgr)
 DM  46 ARDIVENT (turn 666): JIMI HENDRIX of THE 27 CLUB (Howlin' Wolf, mgr.)
 DM  52 FRATSFA (turn 313): PETULANT PANSY of FLOWER GIRLS (Lady Fern, mgr.)
 DM  63 AMEN-TEI (turn 560): JANICE DERBY of WAYFARERS (Jorja, mgr.)
 DM  71 KYR'TERR (turn 267): DIRTY GIRL SCOUT of CORDIALS (Crip, mgr.)
ADM 105 ANDORAK (turn 618): COYOTE of BUGS, SLUGS & THUGS (A-Sop, mgr.)

                                      Top Teams
                                      ---------
 DM   8 ARKERS (turn 365): YOU PAY I SLAY (Khisanth, mgr.)
 DM  11 ARUAK CITY (turn 733): BLUE STEEL (Trim, mgr.)
 DM  14 TOBIR (turn 733): WU-TANG FOREVER (Howlin' Wolf, mgr.)
 DM  22 SOLVEN (turn 718): MIDDLE WAY 15
 DM  24 ZORPUNT (turn 720): KRILL CAVALRY (Jorja, mgr.)
 DM  25 LYRATILAN (turn 717): SAY MY NAME (Howlin' Wolf, mgr.)
 DM  26 CALEAM (turn 714): MEDAL OF HONOR GN (The Anarchist, mgr.)
 DM  30 IAYE (turn 715): QUARTERLY PROPHETS (Huckle Cat, mgr.)
 DM  40 ZENSU (turn 678): RANDOM (Papa Bear, mgr.)
 DM  41 KATI-TEI (turn 675): WANDERERS (Jorja, mgr.)
 DM  46 ARDIVENT (turn 666): WRATHMEN (Kharadmon, mgr.)
 DM  52 FRATSFA (turn 313): DRAGONS GUARD II (Khisanth, mgr.)
 DM  63 AMEN-TEI (turn 560): WAYFARERS (Jorja, mgr.)
 DM  71 KYR'TERR (turn 267): NEW YORK (Crip, mgr.)
ADM 105 ANDORAK (turn 618): SUPERIOR FORCES (Manager, mgr.)

                                   Recent Graduates
                                   ----------------
 DM   8 ARKERS (turn 366): YOSEMITE of SMITHSONIAN (Curator, mgr.)
 DM  11 ARUAK CITY (turn 732): TICKLE ME TIGER of FURRY FURY (Grimm, mgr.)
                               DARK JESTER of CHAOS CARNIVAL (Nurgle, mgr.)
 DM  30 IAYE (turn 714): BO CARTER of DELTA BLUES (Howlin' Wolf, mgr.)
 DM  63 AMEN-TEI (turn 559): WALKING TROUBLE of WAYFARERS (Jorja, mgr.)

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THE TURF WARS ARE COMING!
          THE TURF WARS ARE COMING!

     Gather your alliance-mates and friends.  Prepare your warriors and teams.  Turf
War NINE (TW9) is beginning the mid-Feb 2014 turn right after the winter Face in DM47
North Fork (currently MAMBOLAND).
     Alliances -- 2 to 4 teams
     Cost      -- two Rollup CERTS
     Prizes    -- certs, potions, honor & glory
     Length    -- 10 turns
     Moderators -- same old Oz and Master Darque

Rules, including details, are below.
.....................................................................................
                                 *TURF WAR 9 RULES*

Starting Mid-Feb 2014 (10 turns)
Bring acclaim and glory to the North Fork (DM47) arena.

Anyone may participate; known alliances, new alliances, or temporary alliances
created solely to compete in the Turf War!  To participate, each alliance must:
     1.  Announce the Captain of the alliance in the North Fork (DM 47) newsletter.
     2.  Indicate in the newsletter which Captain/alliance you will join.
     3.  Announcements made on the D2 Forums or elsewhere will not be accepted.

Captains are responsible for:
     1.  Verifying/authorizing, in the North Fork newsletter, those who wish to
participate under the banner of their alliance.  The confirmation/verification must
occur after, or in the same newsletter, but not before, the participant's
declaration.  (Lack of participant indication of joining and/or subsequent lack of
Captain confirmation will delay a team's participation in the Turf War.)
     2.  Distribution of prizes should their alliance win the Turf War.
     3.  Submit two (2) RSI Roll-Up Certificates to participate.  (Note: Captains
may, if they wish, submit certs for all potential members of their alliance.)

Participating managers who are not Captains must:
     1.  Submit two (2) RSI Roll-Up Certificates to participate.  (Unless already
submitted by Captain.  Note: extras will not be returned, but will go into the
winning pool of prizes.)
     2.  Announce their intent to compete with manager name, team name, and alliance
they will represent in the North Fork (DM 47) newsletter.  Announcement made on the
D2 Forums or Chatzy will not be accepted.
         a.  No scores will be tabulated until two RSI Gift Certificates are
received, and participant indication and captain confirmation are posted in the North
Fork newsletter.  NO EXCEPTIONS.
         b.  Before a manager can compete, he/she must declare themselves in the
North Fork (DM 47) newsletter as stated above AND be verified in the same or
subsequent newsletter by the alliance Captain they will represent.
         c.  Only one (1) team per player may compete.  No arena multiple teams or
aliases will be allowed.  Violations will result in immediate manager
disqualification (including team point adjustments) from the Turf War (so be sure to
take any multiple teams OFF of Team Maintenance and be certain not to run any other
team warriors).
         d.  Scoring will NOT be retroactive for teams/alliances that do not properly
declare or get captain confirmation or fail to send a Gift Certificate by Turn 1.  In
other words, if your Gift Certificate is not received until Turn 3 of the Turf War,
and you have fought on Turns 1 and 2, your score will not begin until Turn 3.  All
conditions must be met before scoring will begin--declaration, verification, and Gift
Certificate received.
         e.  No declarations or verifications will be accepted after Turn 3 of the
Turf War.
         f.  For purposes of scoring, the moderators will score the Turf War and
settle any and all disputes as they arise.  Their decisions will be final.  (Note:
the intent is to have a very thorough set of rules so that few decisions, if any, are
required from the moderators.)

Scoring will be as follows for Fights:
Team Points
    a.  Fights made: (includes DA fights)
1 = 0 points
2 = 0 points
3 = 1 point
4 = 3 points
5 = 5 points
     b.  Wins earned;
1 = 1 point
2 = 3 points
3 = 6 points
4 = 10 points
5 = 15 points
     c.  Champion win = 3 additional points 
     d.  Down Challenge = (-5) points each (DM is exempt from DC rule)
     e.  Team with most wins per round earns 4 additional points
         (If ties, points are split 2/2, 1/1/1, 1/1/1/1, no points if 5+ tie)

Alliance Points (Rounds 1 through 5)
     a. Fights made (DA fights count as a fight made)
All (each) team of the alliance fights 1 to 3 wariors = 3 points
All (each) team fights 4+ warriors = 6 points
All (each) team fights all five warriors = 9
     b. Alliance with most wins per that round = 5 points
Tie breakers, in order, are: least losses, most total recognition points (if still
tied after that, no points awarded).
Alliance Points (Rounds 6 through 10 as alliance point scoring doubles)
     c. Fights made (DA fights count as a fight made)
All (each) team of the alliance fights 1 to 3 wariors = 6 points
All (each) team fights 4+ warriors = 12 points
All (each) team fights all five warriors = 18
     d. Alliance with most wins per that round = 10 points
Tie breakers, in order, are: least losses, most total recognition points if still
tied after that, no points awarded).

Champions:
     1.  A Champion may be declared, but one is not mandatory.
It is to the team's/alliance's advantage that you do so.
     2.  Only one Champion allowed per manager at any given time.
     3.  Champions that graduate or are killed by another warrior or the Dark Arena,
may be replaced.
     4.  Champions must have fought at least one previous fight in the North Fork
(DM47 arena) to be able to be declared a champion.
     5.  A Champion can be declared on any round and point factors will begin that
same turn.  (Must meet above 4 conditions prior to declaring)

No warrior may be substituted without the proper use of the DA or arena death or
death in a tournament or graduation.  There must be a maximum of five only on a team
at any point and time.  (The penalty for such substitution is -10 points.)

Downchallenges:
     1.  A downchallenge occurs when a warrior challenges a warrior with lesser
recognition points.
     2.  No challenge or bloodfeud by The Duelmaster shall be deemed a downchallenge.
     3.  No challenge of the Duelmaster shall be deemed a downchallenge.
     4.  Bloodfeuds against warriors with lesser recognition are deemed
downchallenges.

Tournament Considerations:
     1.  Tournament participation is allowed and ENCOURAGED as a great form of recognition for North Fork.
     2.  It is an opportunity to gain skills and preferred challenging within the Turf War.

Special Considerations:
     1.  Each alliance begins the Turf War with zero (0) points.
     2.  There will be NO alliance or team changes once the contest has begun.  If
you begin the Turf War with Alliance A, you must end the Turf War with Alliance A.
If you begin the Turf War with Team A, you must end the Turf War with Team A.
     3.  There will be a maximum of four (4) teams/managers allowed per alliance for
the Turf War VII. The minimum is two (2).
     4.  The Dark Arena may be used at any time without penalty.
     5.  If at any time, the Moderators determine that any non-TW team in the arena
is aiding and/or abetting any TW alliance or team, the affected points won by the
gifted team/alliance will be disallowed and the aiding non-TW team will be asked to
desist from play in the arena until after the Turf War concludes.

Prizes:
The Turf War is meant to be a "winner takes all" contest.  All prizes, except the
Endu award listed below, and 100% of the Gift Certificates will be awarded to the
Captain of the winning alliance at the end of the competition.  It is the
responsibility of the Captain to distribute Gift Certificates.  Moderators will
submit a list of each manager on the winning alliance to RSI at the completion of the
contest for the non-Certificate prizes.

All entry fees (rollup certs) are awarded to the winning alliance.     

The following prizes have been secured from RSI:
     1.  Renaming of the North Fork (DM 47) arena;
     2.  Renaming of all Dark Arena Monsters 
     3.  Known Favorites for one DM47 warrior on each team of the winning alliance
(warrior must be ranked Initiate or above, must be alive, and must have at least one
DM47 arena fight to receive this award).
     4.  +1 Skill bonus (three) for each manager on the winning alliance.  Bonus
potions must be applied to living warriors from DM 47, no more than two skills per
warrior.
     5.  +1 Skill bonus potion (one) for each and every individual manager who fights
in all 10 rounds AND 45 fights of the Turf War.  Bonus potion must be applied to a
living warrior from (DM 47) (Endu award)
     6. Two additional rollup certs for each manager of the winning alliance from
RSI.
     These RSI awards will be listed by the Moderator for claiming from RSI (Lee)
within 4 turns of the end of TW VI.  The certs will be mailed to the winning alliance
by the Moderators within two weeks of the end of the TW.

Moderators:
The Moderators for this event will be Oz and Master Darque.  They will arbitrate all
dealings during the course of the contest.  Their decisions will be final.  All
questions, comments, and scoring disputes may be directed to Land of Oz or Darque
Forces via diplo in DM 47.  Managers with internet access may send a private message
to [The Consortium] or [Darque] on the Duel2 Forums.  Lastly, you may also email
questions, comments, and scoring disputes to rebelnerfherder at yahoo dot com or
wfms101 at aol dot com.

Please note there have been rule changes from the last Turf War.  Please read them carefully noting the following concepts/changes:
1. simpler scoring based primarily on wins and fight participation
2. DA is treated as simply another fight
3. Down-challenging is penalized
4. no emphasis/scoring on kills
5. 10 rounds

                                      SPY REPORT

     If you were disturbed from your beauty rest only to have to watch a bunch of 
ZENSU brutes like you, you'd be grouchy, too.  Of course, we're all terribly 
impressed to see SOLDIER 3 win a fight and gain 14 points, terribly.  Tsk, tsk, 
AMBITIOUS GUARD beat EBBUTT MARSH and EBBUTT MARSH lost 3 points.  You're breakin' my 
heart.  Our last turn's Duelmaster has lost, folks, lost to CONVICTED ASSASSIN, and 
SOLDIER 1 has made the way for a new Duelmaster!  With SOLDIER 1 clearing the throne, 
RANDOM of JACKAL takes a proud seat as ZENSU's new Duelmaster, by virtue of 
recognition points.  I'm not in a very good mood today, but why am I telling you 
this?  You want to know what's new, don't you, ZENSU?   
     He who fights and runs away will live to fight another day, the coward.   
     Ah, now we come to my favorite part, where we see all the guys who are dead and 
gone, and get to see if their team cared.  We're all going to die in the end, so why 
worry if the fate catches up with you sooner that later?   
     I was about to buy a new quill pen the other day, but some fighter took it for 
an epee.  Forgive me for writing with a dagger.  Phlllt!  Just had to do that before 
I leave the fine city of ZENSU.  I feel much better now.  Paste this one in your 
scrapbooks, you'll need the kindling come this winter-- Snide Clemens  

DUELMASTER                     W   L  K POINTS      TEAM NAME                  
 JACKAL 4508                   6   4  0    70       RANDOM (458)

CHALLENGER ADEPTS              W   L  K POINTS      TEAM NAME                  
 SOLDIER 1 4337                5   5  2    64       MEDAL OF HONOR Z1 (441)

ADEPTS                         W   L  K POINTS      TEAM NAME                  
 KORVIN ROSS 4456             10  24  0    54       BEYOND THE PALE (337)
 EBBUTT MARSH 4489             8  14  0    38       BEYOND THE PALE (337)

CHALLENGER INITIATES           W   L  K POINTS      TEAM NAME                  
-SOLDIER 4 4543                4   0  0    33       MEDAL OF HONOR Z1 (441)
-RALPH NEPPEL 4330             1   1  0    33       MEDAL OF HONOR Z1 (441)
-GRASS HOPPER 4531             3   1  0    26       RANDOM (458)
-DARK KNIGHT 4544              2   2  0    26       RANDOM (458)
-SOLDIER 2 4338                3   1  1    24       MEDAL OF HONOR Z1 (441)

INITIATES                      W   L  K POINTS      TEAM NAME                  
 JAKE BLACK 4556               2   0  0    21       BEYOND THE PALE (337)
 NINA STENN 4555               2   0  0    15       BEYOND THE PALE (337)
 SOLDIER 3 4547                1   1  0    15       MEDAL OF HONOR Z1 (441)
-TEXAS RANGER 4549             1   0  0    13       RANDOM (458)
 JON STONE 4545                2   4  0    10       BEYOND THE PALE (337)
-NISHA 4552                    1   0  0    10       OBSCURE DEMONS (463)
 FIRE MARSHALL 4548            0   1  0     1       RANDOM (458)

'-' denotes a warrior who did not fight this turn.

THE DEAD                W  L K TEAM NAME            SLAIN BY              TURN Revenge?
NELLIE STENN 4521       9  4 1 BEYOND THE PALE 337  SOLDIER 1 4337        677   

                                     PERSONAL ADS

Sorry no personals today.  Time ran out. -- Jorja

This personal contains no information.  You need not read it.  It exists only to
convince hal that the critical parts of the newsletter are present and ready to
print.

     The Fall Mail-In Tourney is DUE on the 30th of October and will run on November
     2nd.  Turns received later than the 30th may not get input.

                                  LAST WEEK'S FIGHTS

SOLDIER 1 was devastated by CONVICTED ASSASSIN in a 1 minute mismatched fight.
JACKAL vanquished KORVIN ROSS in a 1 minute uneven Title battle.
EBBUTT MARSH was savagely defeated by AMBITIOUS GUARD in a 2 minute gruesome fight.
JON STONE was devastated by SOLDIER 3 in a 1 minute one-sided contest.
NINA STENN defeated FIRE MARSHALL in a 2 minute amateur's match.
JAKE BLACK devastated CONVICTED THIEF in a 1 minute one-sided duel.

                                    BATTLE REPORT

             MOST POPULAR                        RECORD DURING THE LAST 10 TURNS     
|FIGHTING STYLE               FIGHTS        FIGHTING STYLE     W -   L -  K   PERCENT|
|LUNGING ATTACK                   2         PARRY-RIPOSTE      6 -   0 -  0     100  |
|PARRY-LUNGE                      1         LUNGING ATTACK    18 -   8 -  1      69  |
|PARRY-RIPOSTE                    1         PARRY-LUNGE        2 -   1 -  0      67  |
|WALL OF STEEL                    1         SLASHING ATTACK    4 -   2 -  0      67  |
|AIMED BLOW                       1         STRIKING ATTACK    7 -   4 -  1      64  |
|PARRY-STRIKE                     1         WALL OF STEEL      6 -   4 -  0      60  |
|BASHING ATTACK                   1         AIMED BLOW         7 -   5 -  0      58  |
|TOTAL PARRY                      1         TOTAL PARRY        5 -   5 -  0      50  |
|SLASHING ATTACK                  0         BASHING ATTACK     5 -  13 -  1      28  |
|STRIKING ATTACK                  0         PARRY-STRIKE       0 -   1 -  0       0  |

Turn 679 was great if you     Not so great if you used      The fighting styles of the
used the fighting styles:     the fighting styles:          top eleven warriors are:

PARRY-LUNGE        1 -  0     AIMED BLOW         0 -  1         3  LUNGING ATTACK 
PARRY-RIPOSTE      1 -  0     PARRY-STRIKE       0 -  1         2  BASHING ATTACK 
WALL OF STEEL      1 -  0     SLASHING ATTACK    0 -  0         2  PARRY-RIPOSTE  
LUNGING ATTACK     1 -  1     STRIKING ATTACK    0 -  0         1  TOTAL PARRY    
                              BASHING ATTACK     0 -  1         1  SLASHING ATTACK
                              TOTAL PARRY        0 -  1         1  STRIKING ATTACK
                                                                1  WALL OF STEEL  

                               TOP WARRIOR OF EACH STYLE

FIGHTING STYLE   WARRIOR                     W   L  K PNTS TEAM NAME                  
LUNGING ATTACK   JACKAL 4508                 6   4  0   70 RANDOM (458)
Note: Warriors have a winning record and are an Adept or Above.

The overall popularity leader is KORVIN ROSS 4456.  The most popular warrior this 
turn was JACKAL 4508.  The ten other most popular fighters were SOLDIER 3 4547, NINA 
STENN 4555, JAKE BLACK 4556, JON STONE 4545, FIRE MARSHALL 4548, SOLDIER 1 4337, 
KORVIN ROSS 4456, EBBUTT MARSH 4489,  0, and  0.

The least popular fighter this week was EBBUTT MARSH 4489.  The other ten least 
popular fighters were KORVIN ROSS 4456, SOLDIER 1 4337, FIRE MARSHALL 4548, JON STONE 
4545, JAKE BLACK 4556, NINA STENN 4555, SOLDIER 3 4547, JACKAL 4508,  0, and  0.

                           AVOIDS, BLOODFEUDS, & CHALLENGES

                                       by Pagan

     Ever wonder how the whole challenge/avoid thing works?
     Who you fight depends on exactly how it works.  We will never know exactly how it 
works unless we can get a look at the coding for the program, but this is how I think 
it works:

The Situation:
     The system allows a warrior to make two separate challenges and two distinct 
avoids.
     Avoids are distinct in that they MUST indicate a specific team to be avoided, so 
a "double avoid" indicates a single team twice, which by default means you are 
avoiding one team.  In this case, the second avoid is a duplicate and therefore a 
waste of an avoid.
     Challenges are to specific warriors.  You have a first challenge, and then you 
have a second challenge.

The Process:
     First the computer removes all Dark Arena challengers from the list of available 
warriors.
     Second, the computer checks for WHO fights WHO by going though all TVs and 
bloodfeuds, which are 100% sure to go through except in four instances:
     1. the warrior challenged does not fight,
     2. the warrior challenged is also making a bloodfeud or TV challenge and that 
challenge has already been assigned,
     3. the warrior has already been assigned to a Dark Arena fight,
     4. that warrior has declared your team to be one of his warrior's avoids, 
reducing your challenge to 50%.
     Third, the computer assesses all the regular first-challenge warriors and assigns 
fights.  All other challenges are at 100% chance of success except in a few instances:  
warrior challenged is going to the DA, warrior challenged is involved in a previously 
assigned challenge, warrior challenged is not running this turn, or warrior challenged 
has avoided your team at 50% chance to avoid.
     Fourth, the computer assesses and assigns all secondary challenges of warriors 
not so far assigned for bloodfeuds and TVs.
     Fifth, the computer assesses and assigns all the regular second challenges.
     Sixth, the computer assigns random matchups in each available class starting with 
the highest class first.
     Seventh, the computer finds the remaining warriors that have successfully avoided 
all first and second challenges and/or who also did not get randomly assigned, AND for 
whom no more available warriors remain in their class for random pairing.  All of 
these warriors get RSI-generated warriors to fight based on their class.
     So, if I'm right and avoids reduce the chance for a challenge to 50%, then:
     In the absence of an avoid
          single challenge = 100% success
          double challenge = 100% success, then an additional 100% success
     Where an avoid is involved
          single challenge vs avoid = 50% success
          double challenge vs avoid = 75% (chance to avoid is 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.25; 1 - 
0.25 = 75% chance to succeed

     Bloodfeuds and TVs may increase the percentage chance of success above 100%, or 
they may not.  I feel that their increased ability to get through is based solely on 
the way the computer assigns challenges.  They are first, so they are most likely to 
go through.  The 100% chance for a challenge to succeed is 100% if it's a TV bloodfeud 
and you are the first one to get assigned a fight that day because you are also the 
Duelmaster.  But after that the chances start to diminish rapidly.
     The run-through for second challenges theoretically means your challenge should 
be 100% but it's not the case if you are the LAST guy the computer goes to for finding 
challenges.
     If you don't double challenge, you significantly lower your chance to get your 
challenge through.  The second challenge is not equal to the first challenge.

Pagan